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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Asia Qualifier A · 2026/27 · Men
5 Oct 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Bhutan more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bhutan started on 80%; Bhutan batted first.
Bhutan's chances ranged from 44% to 100% during the match (Myanmar: 0% to 56%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pyae Phyo Waicaught and bowled · Anand Mongar 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Anand Mongar | 11 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 57.89 |
| Paing Danucaught · Tshering Tashi · Gakul Ghalley 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Tshering Tashi · b Gakul Ghalley | 16 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 84.21 |
| Htet Lin Oocaught · Thinley Jamtsho · Gakul Ghalley 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Thinley Jamtsho · b Gakul Ghalley | 12 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 133.33 |
| Htet Lin Aungcaught · Tshering Tashi · Tenjin Rabgey 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tshering Tashi · b Tenjin Rabgey | 12 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 60.00 |
| Ko Ko Lin Thubowled · Anand Mongar 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Anand Mongar | 5 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 62.50 |
| run out · Tenjin Rabgey, Anand Mongar |
| 0 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| Ye Naing Tuncaught · Sonam Chophel · Thinley Jamtsho 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sonam Chophel · b Thinley Jamtsho | 11 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Sai Hla Htwenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 10* | 17 | 0 | 0 | 58.82 |
|---|
| Aung Ko Kocaught · Ranjung Mikyo Dorji · Tenjin Rabgey 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ranjung Mikyo Dorji · b Tenjin Rabgey | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Nyein Cham Soebowled · Gakul Ghalley 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Gakul Ghalley | 6 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Kaung Htet Kyawnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 3 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karma Dorji0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Thinley Jamtsho0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Sonam Yeshey0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 4.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Gakul Ghalley0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 3 | 7.00 | 0 | 1 |
| Anand Mongar0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 2.75 | 2 | 0 |
| Tenjin Rabgey0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 1.75 | 0 | 0 |
1-23 (Paing Danu, 3.5) · 2-37 (Htet Lin Oo, 5.5) · 3-49 (Pyae Phyo Wai, 9.2) · 4-57 (Ko Ko Lin Thu, 11.2) · 5-59 (Khin Aye, 12.1) · 6-65 (Htet Lin Aung, 14.2) · 7-73 (Ye Naing Tun, 16.0) · 8-74 (Aung Ko Ko, 16.4) · 9-88 (Nyein Cham Soe, 19.2)
Recorded target: 120 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 8 | 14/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 17/0 |
| 4 | 10 | 27/1 |
| 5 | 5 | 32/1 |
| 6 | 6 | 38/2 |
| 7 | 6 | 44/2 |
| 8 | 2 | 46/2 |
| 9 | 2 | 48/2 |
| 10 | 5 | 53/3 |
| 11 | 4 | 57/3 |
| 12 | 1 | 58/4 |
| 13 | 3 | 61/5 |
| 14 | 3 | 64/5 |
| 15 | 1 | 65/6 |
| 16 | 8 | 73/7 |
| 17 | 1 | 74/8 |
| 18 | 5 | 79/8 |
| 19 | 4 | 83/8 |
| 20 | 9 | 92/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.