ZimbabweversusNamibia

8 Sept 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Namibia won by 3 wickets

Zimbabwe20.0 overs101/8 Namibia19.1 overs104/7 Wanderers Cricket Ground, Windhoek ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Zimbabwe more likely to win

69%Zimbabwe31%Namibia

Why

In the last 8 T20 internationals between these sides, Zimbabwe won 7 and Namibia won 1
On results in T20 internationals so far, Zimbabwe rate stronger than Namibia (1,547 vs 1,465 on our results rating)
Namibia are playing at home in Namibia

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Zimbabwe started on 65%; Zimbabwe batted first.

Zimbabwe’s chance of winning (%) · Namibia is the rest

Zimbabwe's chances ranged from 7% to 72% during the match (Namibia: 28% to 93%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 17.5: B Biza to M Gorases, M Gorases out. Zimbabwe up from 48% to 64%.
2nd inns 18.3: J Nkomo to SN Shihepo, four by SN Shihepo. Namibia up from 36% to 61%.
2nd inns 18.6: J Nkomo to I van Zyl, four by I van Zyl. Namibia up from 70% to 93%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Zimbabwe101/8 Namibia104/7

Innings 1

Zimbabwe

101/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Zimbabwe batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Modester Mupachikwabowled · Wilka Mwatile 3 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Wilka Mwatile	39	55	3	0	70.91
Kelis Ndhlovucaught · M Gorases · Sylvia Shihepo 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · M Gorases · b Sylvia Shihepo	16	13	3	0	123.08
B Bizacaught · E Van Zyl · S Tuhadeleni 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · E Van Zyl · b S Tuhadeleni	1	4	0	0	25.00
Chipo Mugeribowled · Sune Wittmann 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Sune Wittmann	16	21	1	0	76.19
C Mutasacaught · E Van Zyl · Sune Wittmann 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · E Van Zyl · b Sune Wittmann	4	4	1	0	100.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Wilka Mwatile0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	24	1	6.00	1
S Tuhadeleni1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	12	1	3.00	0
Sylvia Shihepo0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	12	1	6.00	4
Irene van Zyl0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	17	0	5.67	1
M Mwatile0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	8	0	8.00	2
N Benjamin0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	11	0	5.50	0
Sune Wittmann0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	12	2	4.00	2
Arrasta Diergaardt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	5	2	5.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/0
2	0	1/0
3	13	14/0
4	4	18/0
5	5	23/1
6	1	24/2
7	7	31/2
8	7	38/2
9	4	42/2
10	8	50/2
11	5	55/2
12	3	58/2
13	8	66/2
14	8	74/2
15	2	76/2
16	4	80/4
17	8	88/5
18	5	93/5
19	5	98/7
20	3	101/8

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