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West Indies tour of Australia · 2023/24 · Men
2 Feb 2024 · ODI
Melbourne Cricket Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
West Indies started on 12%; West Indies batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alick Athanazecaught · Josh Inglis · Xavier Bartlett 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Josh Inglis · b Xavier Bartlett | 5 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 45.45 |
| Justin Greavesbowled · Xavier Bartlett 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Xavier Bartlett | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
| Keacy Cartyrun out · Sean Abbott · Lance Morris 6 fours · 2 sixes | run out · Sean Abbott | 88 | 108 | 6 | 2 | 81.48 |
 Shai Hopecaught · Matthew Short · Xavier Bartlett1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Matthew Short · b Xavier Bartlett | 12 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 70.59 |
| Kavem Hodgecaught · MW Harvey · Cameron Green 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught |
West Indies's chances ranged from 0% to 18% during the match (Australia: 82% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 11 |
| 18 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 61.11 |
 Roston Chasebowled · Adam Zampa7 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Adam Zampa | 59 | 67 | 7 | 0 | 88.06 |
|---|
| Hayden Walsh, Jr.caught · Marnus Labuschagne · Sean Abbott 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Marnus Labuschagne · b Sean Abbott | 20 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 57.14 |
|---|
| Romario Shepherdlbw · Cameron Green 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Cameron Green | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Matthew Fordecaught · Aaron Hardie · Sean Abbott 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Aaron Hardie · b Sean Abbott | 19 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 90.48 |
|---|
| Gudakesh Motiecaught · Marnus Labuschagne · Xavier Bartlett 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Marnus Labuschagne · b Xavier Bartlett | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
| Oshane Thomasnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 5 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lance Morris2 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 59 | 0 | 5.90 | 1 | 1 |
| Xavier Bartlett1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 17 | 4 | 1.89 | 2 | 0 |
 Sean Abbott0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.4 | 0 | 42 | 2 | 4.34 | 1 | 0 |
 Cameron Green0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 40 | 2 | 5.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Adam Zampa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 56 | 1 | 5.60 | 0 | 0 |
| Matthew Short0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-6 (Justin Greaves, 1.3) · 2-17 (Alick Athanaze, 4.0) · 3-37 (Shai Hope, 9.5) · 4-59 (Kavem Hodge, 15.2) · 5-169 (Roston Chase, 36.3) · 6-193 (Keacy Carty, 41.0) · 7-194 (Romario Shepherd, 41.2) · 8-222 (Matthew Forde, 46.2) · 9-226 (Gudakesh Motie, 47.1) · 10-231 (Hayden Walsh, Jr., 48.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 7/1 |
| 3 | 10 | 17/1 |
| 4 | 0 | 17/2 |
| 5 | 0 | 17/2 |
| 6 | 3 | 20/2 |
| 7 | 8 | 28/2 |
| 8 | 3 | 31/2 |
| 9 | 1 | 32/2 |
| 10 | 5 | 37/3 |
| 11 | 3 | 40/3 |
| 12 | 2 | 42/3 |
| 13 | 6 | 48/3 |
| 14 | 7 | 55/3 |
| 15 | 4 | 59/3 |
| 16 | 1 | 60/4 |
| 17 | 0 | 60/4 |
| 18 | 3 | 63/4 |
| 19 | 2 | 65/4 |
| 20 | 2 | 67/4 |
| 21 | 4 | 71/4 |
| 22 | 5 | 76/4 |
| 23 | 10 | 86/4 |
| 24 | 4 | 90/4 |
| 25 | 6 | 96/4 |
| 26 | 7 | 103/4 |
| 27 | 6 | 109/4 |
| 28 | 3 | 112/4 |
| 29 | 6 | 118/4 |
| 30 | 1 | 119/4 |
| 31 | 6 | 125/4 |
| 32 | 13 | 138/4 |
| 33 | 4 | 142/4 |
| 34 | 8 | 150/4 |
| 35 | 5 | 155/4 |
| 36 | 12 | 167/4 |
| 37 | 7 | 174/5 |
| 38 | 3 | 177/5 |
| 39 | 4 | 181/5 |
| 40 | 4 | 185/5 |
| 41 | 8 | 193/6 |
| 42 | 1 | 194/7 |
| 43 | 5 | 199/7 |
| 44 | 6 | 205/7 |
| 45 | 8 | 213/7 |
| 46 | 8 | 221/7 |
| 47 | 5 | 226/8 |
| 48 | 3 | 229/9 |
| 49 | 2 | 231/10 |
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Adam Zampa: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Josh Inglis: Prime Video AU & NZ · CC BY 3.0
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Cameron Green: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sean Abbott: Naparazzi · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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