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West Indies tour of Australia · 2023/24 · Men
2 Feb 2024 · ODI
Melbourne Cricket Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
West Indies started on 12%; West Indies batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Travis Headcaught · Shai Hope · Matthew Forde1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shai Hope · b Matthew Forde | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 80.00 |
 Josh Ingliscaught · Alick Athanaze · Gudakesh Motie10 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Alick Athanaze · b Gudakesh Motie | 65 | 43 | 10 | 1 | 151.16 |
 Cameron Greennot out4 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 77* | 104 | 4 | 2 | 74.04 |
 Steve Smithnot out8 fours · 0 sixes |
West Indies's chances ranged from 0% to 18% during the match (Australia: 82% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| not out |
| 79* |
| 79 |
| 8 |
| 0 |
| 100.00 |
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Forde0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 37 | 1 | 9.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Oshane Thomas0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 40 | 0 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Gudakesh Motie0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 58 | 1 | 5.80 | 2 | 0 |
| Romario Shepherd0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 3.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Hayden Walsh, Jr.0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.3 | 0 | 41 | 0 | 5.47 | 2 | 0 |
 Roston Chase0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 5.17 | 2 | 0 |
| Kavem Hodge0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-4 (Travis Head, 0.5) · 2-83 (Josh Inglis, 11.3)
Recorded target: 232 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/1 |
| 2 | 5 | 9/1 |
| 3 | 10 | 19/1 |
| 4 | 2 | 21/1 |
| 5 | 11 | 32/1 |
| 6 | 17 | 49/1 |
| 7 | 13 | 62/1 |
| 8 | 3 | 65/1 |
| 9 | 1 | 66/1 |
| 10 | 13 | 79/1 |
| 11 | 3 | 82/1 |
| 12 | 2 | 84/2 |
| 13 | 3 | 87/2 |
| 14 | 12 | 99/2 |
| 15 | 7 | 106/2 |
| 16 | 4 | 110/2 |
| 17 | 3 | 113/2 |
| 18 | 7 | 120/2 |
| 19 | 3 | 123/2 |
| 20 | 4 | 127/2 |
| 21 | 3 | 130/2 |
| 22 | 8 | 138/2 |
| 23 | 6 | 144/2 |
| 24 | 3 | 147/2 |
| 25 | 11 | 158/2 |
| 26 | 7 | 165/2 |
| 27 | 7 | 172/2 |
| 28 | 2 | 174/2 |
| 29 | 9 | 183/2 |
| 30 | 2 | 185/2 |
| 31 | 3 | 188/2 |
| 32 | 8 | 196/2 |
| 33 | 7 | 203/2 |
| 34 | 5 | 208/2 |
| 35 | 7 | 215/2 |
| 36 | 6 | 221/2 |
| 37 | 4 | 225/2 |
| 38 | 3 | 228/2 |
| 39 | 4 | 232/2 |
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Adam Zampa: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Josh Inglis: Prime Video AU & NZ · CC BY 3.0
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Cameron Green: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sean Abbott: Naparazzi · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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