OneTipOneHand
Bringing the game to you…
Loading your next view.
THE WORLD OF CRICKET. CONNECTED. One game. A global community.
OneTipOneHand
Loading your next view.
Spot an error, a missing record or a photograph that needs attention?
Photo: Jshecket
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Pakistan tour of South Africa · 2024/25 · Men
17 Dec 2024 · ODI
Boland Park, Paarl · Venue photographRecorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
South Africa started on 60%; South Africa batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony de Zorzilbw · Salman Ali Agha 6 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Salman Ali Agha | 33 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 132.00 |
 Ryan Rickeltonbowled · Salman Ali Agha7 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Salman Ali Agha | 36 | 38 | 7 | 0 | 94.74 |
| HE van der Dussenbowled · Salman Ali Agha 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Salman Ali Agha | 8 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 57.14 |
 Aiden Markramcaught · Kamran Ghulam · Saim Ayub1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kamran Ghulam · b Saim Ayub | 35 | 54 | 1 | 0 | 64.81 |
| Tristan Stubbs |
South Africa's chances ranged from 3% to 85% during the match (Pakistan: 15% to 97%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| bowled · b Salman Ali Agha |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 50.00 |
| Heinrich Klaasenbowled · Shaheen Afridi 7 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Shaheen Afridi | 86 | 97 | 7 | 2 | 88.66 |
|---|
 Marco Jansencaught · Shaheen Afridi · Abrar Ahmed0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shaheen Afridi · b Abrar Ahmed | 10 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 37.04 |
|---|
| Andile Phehlukwayocaught · Saim Ayub · Abrar Ahmed 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Saim Ayub · b Abrar Ahmed | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
 Kagiso Rabadarun out · Mohammad Rizwan, Irfan Khan · Haris Rauf1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Mohammad Rizwan, Irfan Khan | 11 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Ottniel Baartmannot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 10* | 16 | 0 | 0 | 62.50 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Shaheen Afridi1 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 46 | 1 | 4.60 | 4 | 0 |
 Naseem Shah0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 40 | 0 | 6.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Salman Ali Agha0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 32 | 4 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Abrar Ahmed1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 32 | 2 | 3.20 | 0 | 0 |
 Haris Rauf0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 42 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Saim Ayub0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 34 | 1 | 4.86 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamran Ghulam0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-70 (Tony de Zorzi, 9.5) · 2-73 (Ryan Rickelton, 11.1) · 3-86 (HE van der Dussen, 13.1) · 4-88 (Tristan Stubbs, 13.4) · 5-161 (Aiden Markram, 31.3) · 6-211 (Marco Jansen, 41.4) · 7-214 (Andile Phehlukwayo, 43.1) · 8-218 (Heinrich Klaasen, 44.3) · 9-239 (Kagiso Rabada, 50.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 12/0 |
| 4 | 7 | 19/0 |
| 5 | 10 | 29/0 |
| 6 | 10 | 39/0 |
| 7 | 4 | 43/0 |
| 8 | 5 | 48/0 |
| 9 | 10 | 58/0 |
| 10 | 12 | 70/1 |
| 11 | 3 | 73/1 |
| 12 | 5 | 78/2 |
| 13 | 8 | 86/2 |
| 14 | 2 | 88/4 |
| 15 | 5 | 93/4 |
| 16 | 1 | 94/4 |
| 17 | 8 | 102/4 |
| 18 | 3 | 105/4 |
| 19 | 2 | 107/4 |
| 20 | 2 | 109/4 |
| 21 | 5 | 114/4 |
| 22 | 6 | 120/4 |
| 23 | 2 | 122/4 |
| 24 | 4 | 126/4 |
| 25 | 5 | 131/4 |
| 26 | 9 | 140/4 |
| 27 | 6 | 146/4 |
| 28 | 4 | 150/4 |
| 29 | 5 | 155/4 |
| 30 | 1 | 156/4 |
| 31 | 3 | 159/4 |
| 32 | 4 | 163/5 |
| 33 | 6 | 169/5 |
| 34 | 4 | 173/5 |
| 35 | 6 | 179/5 |
| 36 | 8 | 187/5 |
| 37 | 7 | 194/5 |
| 38 | 1 | 195/5 |
| 39 | 3 | 198/5 |
| 40 | 1 | 199/5 |
| 41 | 10 | 209/5 |
| 42 | 2 | 211/6 |
| 43 | 3 | 214/6 |
| 44 | 0 | 214/7 |
| 45 | 4 | 218/8 |
| 46 | 4 | 222/8 |
| 47 | 7 | 229/8 |
| 48 | 5 | 234/8 |
| 49 | 2 | 236/8 |
| 50 | 3 | 239/9 |
Ryan Rickelton: Dave Morton · Public domain
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Marco Jansen: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aiden Markram: Marcel Sigg · CC0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Rizwan: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Haris Rauf: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Abdullah Shafique: Dave Morton · Public domain
Naseem Shah: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Kagiso Rabada: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Abrar Ahmed: Nazly Ahmed · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
.jpg){kind=link}
.jpg){kind=link}