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Pakistan tour of South Africa · 2024/25 · Men
17 Dec 2024 · ODI
Boland Park, Paarl · Venue photographRecorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
South Africa started on 60%; South Africa batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saim Ayubcaught · Tabraiz Shamsi · Kagiso Rabada 10 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Tabraiz Shamsi · b Kagiso Rabada | 109 | 119 | 10 | 3 | 91.60 |
 Abdullah Shafiquebowled · Marco Jansen0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Marco Jansen | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Mohammad Babar Azamcaught · Marco Jansen · Ottniel Baartman3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Marco Jansen · b Ottniel Baartman | 23 | 38 | 3 | 0 | 60.53 |
 Mohammad Rizwanbowled · Ottniel Baartman0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ottniel Baartman | 1 |
South Africa's chances ranged from 3% to 85% during the match (Pakistan: 15% to 97%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 20.00 |
| Kamran Ghulamrun out · Tristan Stubbs, Heinrich Klaasen · Aiden Markram 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Tristan Stubbs, Heinrich Klaasen | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
|---|
| Salman Ali Aghanot out 4 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 82* | 90 | 4 | 2 | 91.11 |
|---|
| Irfan Khancaught and bowled · Kagiso Rabada 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Kagiso Rabada | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Shaheen Afridibowled · Tabraiz Shamsi0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Tabraiz Shamsi | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Naseem Shahnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 9* | 17 | 0 | 0 | 52.94 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 12 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kagiso Rabada0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 48 | 2 | 4.80 | 3 | 0 |
 Marco Jansen0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.3 | 0 | 45 | 1 | 4.74 | 1 | 0 |
| Ottniel Baartman2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 2 | 37 | 2 | 5.29 | 1 | 0 |
 Aiden Markram1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 42 | 0 | 4.20 | 3 | 0 |
| Tabraiz Shamsi0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 54 | 1 | 5.40 | 4 | 0 |
| Andile Phehlukwayo0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-2 (Abdullah Shafique, 1.4) · 2-46 (Mohammad Babar Azam, 14.3) · 3-52 (Mohammad Rizwan, 16.1) · 4-60 (Kamran Ghulam, 19.1) · 5-201 (Saim Ayub, 41.2) · 6-203 (Irfan Khan, 42.0) · 7-209 (Shaheen Afridi, 44.3)
Recorded target: 240 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 4/1 |
| 3 | 6 | 10/1 |
| 4 | 1 | 11/1 |
| 5 | 6 | 17/1 |
| 6 | 4 | 21/1 |
| 7 | 1 | 22/1 |
| 8 | 6 | 28/1 |
| 9 | 0 | 28/1 |
| 10 | 4 | 32/1 |
| 11 | 0 | 32/1 |
| 12 | 8 | 40/1 |
| 13 | 4 | 44/1 |
| 14 | 1 | 45/1 |
| 15 | 1 | 46/2 |
| 16 | 6 | 52/2 |
| 17 | 4 | 56/3 |
| 18 | 0 | 56/3 |
| 19 | 4 | 60/3 |
| 20 | 3 | 63/4 |
| 21 | 5 | 68/4 |
| 22 | 2 | 70/4 |
| 23 | 7 | 77/4 |
| 24 | 6 | 83/4 |
| 25 | 4 | 87/4 |
| 26 | 7 | 94/4 |
| 27 | 4 | 98/4 |
| 28 | 6 | 104/4 |
| 29 | 4 | 108/4 |
| 30 | 4 | 112/4 |
| 31 | 5 | 117/4 |
| 32 | 5 | 122/4 |
| 33 | 3 | 125/4 |
| 34 | 8 | 133/4 |
| 35 | 22 | 155/4 |
| 36 | 7 | 162/4 |
| 37 | 9 | 171/4 |
| 38 | 8 | 179/4 |
| 39 | 2 | 181/4 |
| 40 | 14 | 195/4 |
| 41 | 5 | 200/4 |
| 42 | 3 | 203/6 |
| 43 | 1 | 204/6 |
| 44 | 4 | 208/6 |
| 45 | 4 | 212/7 |
| 46 | 2 | 214/7 |
| 47 | 11 | 225/7 |
| 48 | 7 | 232/7 |
| 49 | 6 | 238/7 |
| 50 | 4 | 242/7 |
Ryan Rickelton: Dave Morton · Public domain
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Marco Jansen: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aiden Markram: Marcel Sigg · CC0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Rizwan: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Haris Rauf: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Abdullah Shafique: Dave Morton · Public domain
Naseem Shah: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Kagiso Rabada: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Abrar Ahmed: Nazly Ahmed · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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