Colombo StrikersversusKandy Falcons

2 Jul 2024 · T20

Pallekele International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Colombo Strikers won by 51 runs

Colombo Strikers20.0 overs198/7 Kandy Falcons15.5 overs147/10 Pallekele International Cricket Stadium ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Colombo Strikers started on 43%; Colombo Strikers batted first.

Colombo Strikers’s chance of winning (%) · Kandy Falcons is the rest

Colombo Strikers's chances ranged from 35% to 100% during the match (Kandy Falcons: 0% to 65%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 12.6: GD Phillips to PWH de Silva, six by PWH de Silva. Kandy Falcons up from 33% to 43%.
2nd inns 13.6: B Fernando to AD Mathews, AD Mathews out. Colombo Strikers up from 64% to 76%.
2nd inns 14.4: Shadab Khan to PWH de Silva, PWH de Silva out. Colombo Strikers up from 70% to 87%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.