ZimbabweversusSouth Africa

South Africa more likely to win

Why

• In the last 8 T20 internationals between these sides, South Africa won 8 and Zimbabwe won 0
• On results in T20 internationals so far, South Africa rate stronger than Zimbabwe (1,624 vs 1,520 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

Zimbabwe started on 19%; Zimbabwe batted first.

Zimbabwe's chances ranged from 0% to 39% during the match (South Africa: 61% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1. 1.4: D Jansen to BJ Curran, six by BJ Curran. Zimbabwe up from 27% to 32%.
2. 5.1: D Jansen to BJ Curran, BJ Curran out. South Africa up from 64% to 72%.
3. 10.1: BC Fortuin to D Myers, D Myers out. South Africa up from 67% to 73%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.