GloucestershireversusMiddlesex

6 Jul 2025 · T20

County Ground, Bristol · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Gloucestershire won by 9 runs

Gloucestershire20.0 overs204/5 Middlesex20.0 overs195/7 County Ground, Bristol ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Gloucestershire started on 59%; Gloucestershire batted first.

Gloucestershire’s chance of winning (%) · Middlesex is the rest

Gloucestershire's chances ranged from 37% to 100% during the match (Middlesex: 0% to 64%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 7.5: AS Dale to KS Williamson, KS Williamson out. Gloucestershire up from 38% to 53%.
2nd inns 12.2: GL van Buuren to BBA Geddes, BBA Geddes out. Gloucestershire up from 47% to 61%.
2nd inns 14.4: J Shaw to SS Eskinazi, SS Eskinazi out. Gloucestershire up from 50% to 65%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Gloucestershire204/5 Middlesex195/7

Innings 1