IrelandversusNetherlands

30 Jan 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Ireland won by 98 runs

Ireland20.0 overs143/9 Netherlands14.5 overs45/10 Mulpani Cricket Ground ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

47%Ireland53%Netherlands

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Netherlands rate stronger than Ireland (1,772 vs 1,654 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Ireland won 9 and Netherlands won 1

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Ireland started on 45%; Ireland batted first.

Ireland’s chance of winning (%) · Netherlands is the rest

Ireland's chances ranged from 43% to 100% during the match (Netherlands: 0% to 57%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 2.2: O Prendergast to P Molkenboer, P Molkenboer out. Ireland up from 54% to 64%.
2nd inns 3.3: J Maguire to IJR Zwilling, IJR Zwilling out. Ireland up from 67% to 78%.
2nd inns 4.6: O Prendergast to B de Leede, B de Leede out. Ireland up from 78% to 87%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Ireland143/9 Netherlands45/10

Innings 2

Netherlands

45/1014.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Netherlands batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Iris Zwillingbowled · Jane Maguire 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Jane Maguire	10	12	2	0	83.33
P Molkenboercaught · Amy Hunter · Orla Prendergast 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Amy Hunter · b Orla Prendergast	2	4	0	0	50.00
Babette de Leedebowled · Orla Prendergast 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Orla Prendergast	2	10	0	0	20.00
Sterre Kaliscaught · Aimee Maguire · Jane Maguire 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Aimee Maguire · b Jane Maguire	5	5	1	0	100.00
Robine Rijkebowled · Orla Prendergast 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Orla Prendergast	0	1	0	0	0.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Orla Prendergast0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	13	3	3.25	2
LA McBride0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	9	2	3.00	0
Jane Maguire1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.5	1	9	3	3.18	0
Arlene Kelly1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	3	0	1.00	0
Aimee Maguire0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	9	1	4.50	3

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	9	9/0
2	3	12/0
3	1	13/1
4	6	19/2
5	2	21/3
6	0	21/4
7	1	22/5
8	2	24/5
9	2	26/6
10	0	26/7
11	4	30/8
12	7	37/8
13	2	39/8
14	3	42/9
15	3	45/10

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