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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2025 · Men
31 Aug 2025 · ODI
Recorded result
Scotland more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Canada started on 40%; Canada batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ali Nadeemcaught · Mark Watt · Brad Currie 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mark Watt · b Brad Currie | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| YS Samrarun out · Brad Currie · Brad Currie 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Brad Currie | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Pargat Singhbowled · Josh Davey 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Josh Davey | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
| Dilpreet Bajwacaught · George Munsey · Brad Currie 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · George Munsey · b Brad Currie | 8 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 36.36 |
| Nicholas Kirtonlbw · Brad Currie 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Brad Currie | 5 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 38.46 |
| Shreyas Movva |
Canada's chances ranged from 0% to 39% during the match (Scotland: 61% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Brad Currie · b Brandon McMullen |
| 60 |
| 110 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 54.55 |
| Akhil Kumarcaught · Mark Watt · Brandon McMullen 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mark Watt · b Brandon McMullen | 9 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 69.23 |
|---|
 Saad Bin Zafarbowled · Brad Currie4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Brad Currie | 29 | 51 | 4 | 0 | 56.86 |
|---|
| Jaskaran Singhcaught · George Munsey · Mark Watt 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · George Munsey · b Mark Watt | 32 | 45 | 2 | 1 | 71.11 |
|---|
| Shahid Ahmadzaicaught · Tom Bruce · Safyaan Sharif 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Bruce · b Safyaan Sharif | 10 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 47.62 |
|---|
| Kaleem Sananot out 2 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 16* | 7 | 2 | 1 | 228.57 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 9 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Currie1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 2.60 | 1 | 0 |
 Josh Davey3 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 3 | 20 | 1 | 2.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Brandon McMullen1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 39 | 2 | 4.88 | 0 | 0 |
 Mark Watt0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 49 | 1 | 4.90 | 1 | 0 |
| Safyaan Sharif0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.1 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 2.69 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Leask0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 4.50 | 1 | 0 |
1-0 (Ali Nadeem, 0.1) · 2-0 (YS Samra, 0.2) · 3-1 (Pargat Singh, 1.4) · 4-12 (Nicholas Kirton, 4.5) · 5-18 (Dilpreet Bajwa, 10.1) · 6-32 (Akhil Kumar, 14.0) · 7-94 (Saad Bin Zafar, 32.3) · 8-135 (Shreyas Movva, 41.0) · 9-160 (Jaskaran Singh, 45.5) · 10-184 (Shahid Ahmadzai, 48.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 0 | 1/3 |
| 3 | 2 | 3/3 |
| 4 | 7 | 10/3 |
| 5 | 2 | 12/4 |
| 6 | 1 | 13/4 |
| 7 | 4 | 17/4 |
| 8 | 0 | 17/4 |
| 9 | 1 | 18/4 |
| 10 | 0 | 18/4 |
| 11 | 0 | 18/5 |
| 12 | 2 | 20/5 |
| 13 | 3 | 23/5 |
| 14 | 9 | 32/6 |
| 15 | 1 | 33/6 |
| 16 | 0 | 33/6 |
| 17 | 4 | 37/6 |
| 18 | 5 | 42/6 |
| 19 | 1 | 43/6 |
| 20 | 2 | 45/6 |
| 21 | 5 | 50/6 |
| 22 | 8 | 58/6 |
| 23 | 2 | 60/6 |
| 24 | 1 | 61/6 |
| 25 | 2 | 63/6 |
| 26 | 3 | 66/6 |
| 27 | 3 | 69/6 |
| 28 | 6 | 75/6 |
| 29 | 7 | 82/6 |
| 30 | 8 | 90/6 |
| 31 | 3 | 93/6 |
| 32 | 1 | 94/6 |
| 33 | 3 | 97/7 |
| 34 | 6 | 103/7 |
| 35 | 6 | 109/7 |
| 36 | 7 | 116/7 |
| 37 | 5 | 121/7 |
| 38 | 1 | 122/7 |
| 39 | 1 | 123/7 |
| 40 | 4 | 127/7 |
| 41 | 8 | 135/8 |
| 42 | 5 | 140/8 |
| 43 | 7 | 147/8 |
| 44 | 4 | 151/8 |
| 45 | 1 | 152/8 |
| 46 | 10 | 162/9 |
| 47 | 8 | 170/9 |
| 48 | 14 | 184/9 |
| 49 | 0 | 184/10 |
Mark Watt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Josh Davey: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Saad Bin Zafar: Apnagm · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
