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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2025 · Men
31 Aug 2025 · ODI
Recorded result
Scotland more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Canada started on 40%; Canada batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Munseynot out 7 fours · 4 sixes | not out | 84* | 103 | 7 | 4 | 81.55 |
| Charlie Tearcaught · Akhil Kumar · Kaleem Sana 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Akhil Kumar · b Kaleem Sana | 10 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 83.33 |
| Brandon McMullencaught · Shreyas Movva · Kaleem Sana 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shreyas Movva · b Kaleem Sana | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Richie Berringtonbowled · Pargat Singh 6 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Pargat Singh | 64 | 118 | 6 | 0 | 54.24 |
| Tom Brucenot out 0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 11* | 16 | 0 | 1 | 68.75 |
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 16 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
Canada's chances ranged from 0% to 39% during the match (Scotland: 61% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaleem Sana0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 20 | 2 | 4.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Jaskaran Singh2 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 30 | 0 | 3.00 | 7 | 0 |
| Dilpreet Bajwa1 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 1 | 24 | 0 | 4.80 | 5 | 0 |
| Akhil Kumar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 4.40 | 1 | 0 |
| 6.0 | 1 | 24 | 0 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shahid Ahmadzai0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Pargat Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.5 | 0 | 36 | 1 | 5.27 | 0 | 0 |
| Nicholas Kirton0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 20.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-21 (Charlie Tear, 4.3) · 2-21 (Brandon McMullen, 4.5) · 3-167 (Richie Berrington, 37.4)
Recorded target: 185 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 5/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 9/0 |
| 4 | 6 | 15/0 |
| 5 | 7 | 22/2 |
| 6 | 0 | 22/2 |
| 7 | 1 | 23/2 |
| 8 | 2 | 25/2 |
| 9 | 5 | 30/2 |
| 10 | 3 | 33/2 |
| 11 | 6 | 39/2 |
| 12 | 1 | 40/2 |
| 13 | 6 | 46/2 |
| 14 | 1 | 47/2 |
| 15 | 0 | 47/2 |
| 16 | 11 | 58/2 |
| 17 | 7 | 65/2 |
| 18 | 0 | 65/2 |
| 19 | 6 | 71/2 |
| 20 | 3 | 74/2 |
| 21 | 5 | 79/2 |
| 22 | 4 | 83/2 |
| 23 | 2 | 85/2 |
| 24 | 6 | 91/2 |
| 25 | 3 | 94/2 |
| 26 | 3 | 97/2 |
| 27 | 6 | 103/2 |
| 28 | 8 | 111/2 |
| 29 | 3 | 114/2 |
| 30 | 3 | 117/2 |
| 31 | 4 | 121/2 |
| 32 | 6 | 127/2 |
| 33 | 3 | 130/2 |
| 34 | 4 | 134/2 |
| 35 | 6 | 140/2 |
| 36 | 6 | 146/2 |
| 37 | 20 | 166/2 |
| 38 | 1 | 167/3 |
| 39 | 4 | 171/3 |
| 40 | 7 | 178/3 |
| 41 | 0 | 178/3 |
| 42 | 9 | 187/3 |
Mark Watt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Josh Davey: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Saad Bin Zafar: Apnagm · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.