Melbourne StarsversusSydney Sixers

6 Jan 2024 · T20

Melbourne Cricket Ground · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sydney Sixers won by 7 wickets

Melbourne Stars20.0 overs156/4 Sydney Sixers18.1 overs160/3 Melbourne Cricket Ground ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Melbourne Stars started on 40%; Melbourne Stars batted first.

Melbourne Stars’s chance of winning (%) · Sydney Sixers is the rest

Melbourne Stars's chances ranged from 0% to 59% during the match (Sydney Sixers: 42% to 100%).

Biggest swings

4.5: BJ Dwarshuis to TF Rogers, TF Rogers out. Sydney Sixers up from 44% to 53%.
5.4: T Murphy to BJ Webster, BJ Webster out. Sydney Sixers up from 56% to 64%.
2nd inns 3.5: SM Boland to JR Philippe, JR Philippe out. Melbourne Stars up from 27% to 38%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.