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Portugal T20 Tri-Series · 2026 · Men
8 Apr 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Portugal more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Portugal started on 80%; Portugal batted first.
Portugal's chances ranged from 25% to 98% during the match (France: 2% to 75%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D Norotamcaught · Virk Ali · Noman Amjad 7 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Virk Ali · b Noman Amjad | 46 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 143.75 |
| Christopher De Freitasbowled · Zaheer Zahiri 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Zaheer Zahiri | 9 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 90.00 |
| J Martinsbowled · Usman Khan 0 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Usman Khan | 23 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 95.83 |
| Natim Hassambowled · Dawood Ahmadzai 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Dawood Ahmadzai | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Edward Flemingrun out · Mukhtar Ghulami · Usman Khan 3 fours · 1 sixes | run out · Mukhtar Ghulami | 36 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 124.14 |
| bowled · b Mohammad Khan Rafah |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| C Nunescaught and bowled · Mohammad Khan Rafah 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught and bowled · b Mohammad Khan Rafah | 13 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 216.67 |
|---|
| R Hashunot out 0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 15* | 9 | 0 | 1 | 166.67 |
|---|
| H Khuttancaught · Virk Ali · Usman Khan 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Virk Ali · b Usman Khan | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| U Shanturun out · Noman Amjad, Dawood Ahmadzai · Dawood Ahmadzai 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Noman Amjad, Dawood Ahmadzai | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 6 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noman Amjad0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 36 | 1 | 9.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Zaheer Zahiri0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 7.75 | 2 | 0 |
| Dawood Ahmadzai0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 29 | 1 | 7.25 | 1 | 1 |
| Zada Sher0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 6.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Mohammad Khan Rafah0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 23 | 2 | 7.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Usman Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 24 | 2 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-59 (D Norotam, 6.2) · 2-70 (Christopher De Freitas, 7.5) · 3-71 (Natim Hassam, 8.1) · 4-116 (J Martins, 15.0) · 5-121 (C Potgieter, 15.4) · 6-133 (Edward Fleming, 17.0) · 7-140 (C Nunes, 17.3) · 8-149 (H Khuttan, 19.0) · 9-161 (U Shantu, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 13 | 18/0 |
| 3 | 14 | 32/0 |
| 4 | 6 | 38/0 |
| 5 | 11 | 49/0 |
| 6 | 10 | 59/0 |
| 7 | 6 | 65/1 |
| 8 | 6 | 71/2 |
| 9 | 4 | 75/3 |
| 10 | 7 | 82/3 |
| 11 | 1 | 83/3 |
| 12 | 5 | 88/3 |
| 13 | 12 | 100/3 |
| 14 | 6 | 106/3 |
| 15 | 10 | 116/4 |
| 16 | 6 | 122/5 |
| 17 | 11 | 133/6 |
| 18 | 12 | 145/7 |
| 19 | 4 | 149/8 |
| 20 | 12 | 161/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.