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Pakistan ODI Tri-Series · 2026/27 · Men
31 Oct 2026 · ODI
Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore · Venue photographRecorded result
Pakistan more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 25%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Pakistan Cricket · Uploaded 2026-10-31
Pakistan Cricket · Uploaded 2026-10-31
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avishka Fernandolbw · Salman Ali Agha 3 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Salman Ali Agha | 38 | 49 | 3 | 1 | 77.55 |
| Kamindu Mendislbw · Shaheen Afridi 12 fours · 2 sixes | lbw · b Shaheen Afridi | 131 | 128 | 12 | 2 | 102.34 |
| Kusal Mendiscaught and bowled · Salman Ali Agha 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught and bowled · b Salman Ali Agha | 8 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 66.67 |
| Pavan Rathnayakecaught · Mohammad Babar Azam · Haris Rauf 8 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Babar Azam · b Haris Rauf | 77 | 65 | 8 | 0 | 118.46 |
| Dasun Shanakacaught · Maaz Sadaqat · Shaheen Afridi 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Maaz Sadaqat · b Shaheen Afridi | 17 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 188.89 |
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 0% to 85% during the match (Pakistan: 15% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Maaz Sadaqat · b Naseem Shah |
| 6 |
| 9 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 66.67 |
| Sahan Arachchigecaught · Fahim Ashraf · Naseem Shah 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Fahim Ashraf · b Naseem Shah | 15 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 125.00 |
|---|
| Dunith Wellalagecaught · Saad Baig · Haris Rauf 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Saad Baig · b Haris Rauf | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Mahesh Theekshananot out 0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 9* | 8 | 0 | 1 | 112.50 |
|---|
| Asitha Fernandonot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 6* | 5 | 1 | 0 | 120.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 10 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Shaheen Afridi0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 50 | 2 | 5.00 | 2 | 0 |
 Naseem Shah0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 80 | 2 | 8.00 | 4 | 0 |
| Arafat Minhas0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 64 | 0 | 6.40 | 2 | 1 |
| Salman Ali Agha0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 44 | 2 | 6.29 | 2 | 0 |
 Haris Rauf1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 60 | 2 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Fahim Ashraf0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 7.67 | 0 | 0 |
1-87 (Avishka Fernando, 17.2) · 2-109 (Kusal Mendis, 21.3) · 3-255 (Kamindu Mendis, 41.1) · 4-279 (Dasun Shanaka, 43.2) · 5-283 (Pavan Rathnayake, 44.2) · 6-296 (Janith Liyanage, 46.3) · 7-305 (Dunith Wellalage, 47.4) · 8-307 (Sahan Arachchige, 48.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 5/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 10/0 |
| 4 | 6 | 16/0 |
| 5 | 4 | 20/0 |
| 6 | 15 | 35/0 |
| 7 | 5 | 40/0 |
| 8 | 2 | 42/0 |
| 9 | 1 | 43/0 |
| 10 | 8 | 51/0 |
| 11 | 4 | 55/0 |
| 12 | 8 | 63/0 |
| 13 | 9 | 72/0 |
| 14 | 8 | 80/0 |
| 15 | 4 | 84/0 |
| 16 | 2 | 86/0 |
| 17 | 0 | 86/0 |
| 18 | 3 | 89/1 |
| 19 | 1 | 90/1 |
| 20 | 7 | 97/1 |
| 21 | 11 | 108/1 |
| 22 | 6 | 114/2 |
| 23 | 4 | 118/2 |
| 24 | 10 | 128/2 |
| 25 | 10 | 138/2 |
| 26 | 4 | 142/2 |
| 27 | 4 | 146/2 |
| 28 | 8 | 154/2 |
| 29 | 5 | 159/2 |
| 30 | 4 | 163/2 |
| 31 | 8 | 171/2 |
| 32 | 5 | 176/2 |
| 33 | 9 | 185/2 |
| 34 | 8 | 193/2 |
| 35 | 7 | 200/2 |
| 36 | 10 | 210/2 |
| 37 | 6 | 216/2 |
| 38 | 10 | 226/2 |
| 39 | 6 | 232/2 |
| 40 | 6 | 238/2 |
| 41 | 17 | 255/2 |
| 42 | 8 | 263/3 |
| 43 | 15 | 278/3 |
| 44 | 4 | 282/4 |
| 45 | 5 | 287/5 |
| 46 | 4 | 291/5 |
| 47 | 8 | 299/6 |
| 48 | 8 | 307/7 |
| 49 | 14 | 321/8 |
| 50 | 4 | 325/8 |
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Haris Rauf: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Janith Liyanage: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Naseem Shah: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Fakhar Zaman: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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