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Pakistan ODI Tri-Series · 2026/27 · Men
31 Oct 2026 · ODI
Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore · Venue photographRecorded result
Pakistan more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 25%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Pakistan Cricket · Uploaded 2026-10-31
Pakistan Cricket · Uploaded 2026-10-31
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Fakhar Zamanbowled · Dilshan Madushanka11 fours · 6 sixes | bowled · b Dilshan Madushanka | 127 | 99 | 11 | 6 | 128.28 |
| Maaz Sadaqatcaught · Pavan Rathnayake · Dilshan Madushanka 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Pavan Rathnayake · b Dilshan Madushanka | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 71.43 |
 Mohammad Babar Azamcaught · Pavan Rathnayake · Dilshan Madushanka0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Pavan Rathnayake · b Dilshan Madushanka | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Saad Baigcaught and bowled · Mahesh Theekshana 11 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Mahesh Theekshana | 74 | 75 | 11 | 0 | 98.67 |
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 0% to 85% during the match (Pakistan: 15% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| bowled · b Dunith Wellalage |
| 17 |
| 25 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 68.00 |
| Hassan Nawaznot out 2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 37* | 45 | 2 | 0 | 82.22 |
|---|
| Arafat Minhascaught and bowled · Asitha Fernando 3 fours · 4 sixes | caught and bowled · b Asitha Fernando | 61 | 31 | 3 | 4 | 196.77 |
|---|
| Fahim Ashrafcaught · Mahesh Theekshana · Asitha Fernando 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mahesh Theekshana · b Asitha Fernando | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Shaheen Afridinot out0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 6* | 3 | 0 | 1 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asitha Fernando1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 72 | 2 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Dilshan Madushanka1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.3 | 1 | 63 | 3 | 6.63 | 2 | 0 |
| Mahesh Theekshana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 57 | 1 | 5.70 | 0 | 0 |
 Janith Liyanage0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 7.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Sahan Arachchige0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Dunith Wellalage0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 58 | 1 | 5.80 | 1 | 0 |
| Dasun Shanaka0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 57 | 0 | 8.14 | 1 | 0 |
1-8 (Maaz Sadaqat, 1.4) · 2-14 (Mohammad Babar Azam, 3.3) · 3-163 (Saad Baig, 26.5) · 4-220 (Fakhar Zaman, 33.4) · 5-230 (Salman Ali Agha, 36.5) · 6-324 (Arafat Minhas, 47.4) · 7-324 (Fahim Ashraf, 47.5)
Recorded target: 326 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 8/1 |
| 3 | 6 | 14/1 |
| 4 | 8 | 22/2 |
| 5 | 1 | 23/2 |
| 6 | 10 | 33/2 |
| 7 | 6 | 39/2 |
| 8 | 0 | 39/2 |
| 9 | 2 | 41/2 |
| 10 | 9 | 50/2 |
| 11 | 3 | 53/2 |
| 12 | 7 | 60/2 |
| 13 | 2 | 62/2 |
| 14 | 8 | 70/2 |
| 15 | 9 | 79/2 |
| 16 | 5 | 84/2 |
| 17 | 3 | 87/2 |
| 18 | 7 | 94/2 |
| 19 | 3 | 97/2 |
| 20 | 8 | 105/2 |
| 21 | 8 | 113/2 |
| 22 | 6 | 119/2 |
| 23 | 9 | 128/2 |
| 24 | 7 | 135/2 |
| 25 | 10 | 145/2 |
| 26 | 9 | 154/2 |
| 27 | 9 | 163/3 |
| 28 | 11 | 174/3 |
| 29 | 8 | 182/3 |
| 30 | 11 | 193/3 |
| 31 | 4 | 197/3 |
| 32 | 7 | 204/3 |
| 33 | 12 | 216/3 |
| 34 | 4 | 220/4 |
| 35 | 4 | 224/4 |
| 36 | 2 | 226/4 |
| 37 | 4 | 230/5 |
| 38 | 5 | 235/5 |
| 39 | 3 | 238/5 |
| 40 | 6 | 244/5 |
| 41 | 5 | 249/5 |
| 42 | 8 | 257/5 |
| 43 | 7 | 264/5 |
| 44 | 6 | 270/5 |
| 45 | 10 | 280/5 |
| 46 | 15 | 295/5 |
| 47 | 13 | 308/5 |
| 48 | 16 | 324/7 |
| 49 | 7 | 331/7 |
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Haris Rauf: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Janith Liyanage: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Naseem Shah: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Fakhar Zaman: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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