Adelaide StrikersversusMelbourne Stars

13 Jan 2026 · T20

Melbourne Cricket Ground · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Melbourne Stars won by 6 wickets

Adelaide Strikers19.3 overs83/10 Melbourne Stars15.1 overs86/4 Melbourne Cricket Ground ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Adelaide Strikers started on 39%; Adelaide Strikers batted first.

Adelaide Strikers’s chance of winning (%) · Melbourne Stars is the rest

Adelaide Strikers's chances ranged from 0% to 40% during the match (Melbourne Stars: 61% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.6: TK Curran to AT Carey, AT Carey out. Melbourne Stars up from 62% to 71%.
3.3: TK Curran to CA Lynn, CA Lynn out. Melbourne Stars up from 72% to 80%.
4.1: PM Siddle to MW Short, MW Short out. Melbourne Stars up from 81% to 88%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Adelaide Strikers83/10 Melbourne Stars86/4

Innings 1