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ICC Women's T20 World Cup Europe Division 2 Qualifier · 2025 · Women
28 May 2025 · T20
Recorded result
Isle of Man more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Jersey started on 43%; Jersey batted first.
Jersey's chances ranged from 28% to 100% during the match (Isle of Man: 0% to 72%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucy Barnettcaught · Trinity Smith · Florence Tanguy 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Trinity Smith · b Florence Tanguy | 15 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| E Cleatorcaught · Lily Greig · Grace Wetherall 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Lily Greig · b Grace Wetherall | 9 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| C Henerycaught and bowled · Florence Tanguy 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Florence Tanguy | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| S Hassallbowled · Analise Merritt 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Analise Merritt | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
| R Overmanbowled · Analise Merritt 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Analise Merritt | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| bowled · b Analise Merritt |
| 8 |
| 10 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 80.00 |
| C Crowerun out · Grace Wetherall, Mia Maguire · O Bastin 2 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Grace Wetherall, Mia Maguire | 25 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 78.13 |
|---|
| Danielle Murphybowled · Analise Merritt 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Analise Merritt | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 150.00 |
|---|
| C Perrycaught and bowled · Grace Wetherall 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Grace Wetherall | 6 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 85.71 |
|---|
| A Thorpebowled · Chloe Greechan 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Chloe Greechan | 9 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
| Georgina Fordnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 2 · noballs: 3 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chloe Greechan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.1 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 4.42 | 0 | 0 |
| Grace Wetherall0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 2 | 6.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Florence Tanguy0 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 15 | 2 | 5.00 | 0 | 2 |
| Analise Merritt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 4 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
| O Bastin0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 4.00 | 1 | 1 |
1-25 (E Cleator, 3.5) · 2-26 (C Henery, 4.1) · 3-27 (Lucy Barnett, 4.5) · 4-28 (R Overman, 5.1) · 5-40 (S Hassall, 7.3) · 6-41 (R Webster, 8.0) · 7-50 (Danielle Murphy, 9.2) · 8-62 (C Perry, 11.4) · 9-91 (C Crowe, 17.0) · 10-91 (A Thorpe, 17.1)
Recorded target: 141 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 9 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 8 | 20/0 |
| 4 | 6 | 26/1 |
| 5 | 2 | 28/3 |
| 6 | 5 | 33/4 |
| 7 | 6 | 39/4 |
| 8 | 2 | 41/6 |
| 9 | 5 | 46/6 |
| 10 | 10 | 56/7 |
| 11 | 3 | 59/7 |
| 12 | 4 | 63/8 |
| 13 | 7 | 70/8 |
| 14 | 6 | 76/8 |
| 15 | 4 | 80/8 |
| 16 | 7 | 87/8 |
| 17 | 4 | 91/9 |
| 18 | 0 | 91/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.