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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2026/27 · Men
19 Oct 2026 · ODI
Recorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Nepal started on 47%; Nepal batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D Khanalstumped · Vinayak Shukla · Samay Shrivastava 4 fours · 1 sixes | stumped · Vinayak Shukla · b Samay Shrivastava | 57 | 65 | 4 | 1 | 87.69 |
| Aasif Sheikhcaught · Hasnain Ul Wahab · Shah Faisal 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hasnain Ul Wahab · b Shah Faisal | 7 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 53.85 |
| Ishan Pandeystumped · Vinayak Shukla · Samay Shrivastava 2 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Vinayak Shukla · b Samay Shrivastava | 29 | 60 | 2 | 0 | 48.33 |
 Rohit Kumarcaught · Hassnain Shah · Jay Odedra2 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Hassnain Shah · b Jay Odedra | 80 | 81 | 2 | 2 | 98.77 |
 |
Nepal's chances ranged from 23% to 98% during the match (Oman: 2% to 77%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Vinayak Shukla · b Shah Faisal |
| 69 |
| 62 |
| 3 |
| 4 |
| 111.29 |
 Gulsan Jhacaught · Sanju Sajeev · Jay Odedra1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sanju Sajeev · b Jay Odedra | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 125.00 |
|---|
 Karan KChit wicket · Shah Faisal2 fours · 0 sixes | hit wicket · b Shah Faisal | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 180.00 |
|---|
| Basir Ahamadcaught · K Sonavale · Shah Faisal 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · K Sonavale · b Shah Faisal | 17 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 242.86 |
|---|
 Sandeep Lamichhanecaught · Hammad Mirza · Jay Odedra0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hammad Mirza · b Jay Odedra | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Nandan Yadavcaught · K Sonavale · Shah Faisal 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · K Sonavale · b Shah Faisal | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Lalit Rajbanshinot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shah Faisal0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 57 | 5 | 7.13 | 1 | 0 |
| Shakeel Ahmed1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 29 | 0 | 2.90 | 0 | 0 |
| Jay Odedra0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 44 | 3 | 4.40 | 0 | 0 |
| Hassnain Shah0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 61 | 0 | 6.78 | 2 | 0 |
| Samay Shrivastava1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 61 | 2 | 6.10 | 1 | 0 |
| Mujibur Ali0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 8.33 | 0 | 0 |
1-19 (Aasif Sheikh, 5.0) · 2-83 (Ishan Pandey, 21.4) · 3-99 (D Khanal, 25.1) · 4-238 (Dipendra Singh Airee, 45.1) · 5-249 (Gulsan Jha, 46.2) · 6-261 (Karan KC, 47.5) · 7-265 (Rohit Kumar, 48.5) · 8-265 (Sandeep Lamichhane, 49.0) · 9-279 (Basir Ahamad, 49.4) · 10-280 (Nandan Yadav, 50.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 8/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 12/0 |
| 4 | 6 | 18/0 |
| 5 | 1 | 19/1 |
| 6 | 1 | 20/1 |
| 7 | 1 | 21/1 |
| 8 | 2 | 23/1 |
| 9 | 1 | 24/1 |
| 10 | 0 | 24/1 |
| 11 | 3 | 27/1 |
| 12 | 3 | 30/1 |
| 13 | 2 | 32/1 |
| 14 | 4 | 36/1 |
| 15 | 7 | 43/1 |
| 16 | 8 | 51/1 |
| 17 | 5 | 56/1 |
| 18 | 6 | 62/1 |
| 19 | 5 | 67/1 |
| 20 | 4 | 71/1 |
| 21 | 10 | 81/1 |
| 22 | 4 | 85/2 |
| 23 | 7 | 92/2 |
| 24 | 0 | 92/2 |
| 25 | 7 | 99/2 |
| 26 | 4 | 103/3 |
| 27 | 2 | 105/3 |
| 28 | 5 | 110/3 |
| 29 | 2 | 112/3 |
| 30 | 12 | 124/3 |
| 31 | 6 | 130/3 |
| 32 | 6 | 136/3 |
| 33 | 12 | 148/3 |
| 34 | 3 | 151/3 |
| 35 | 5 | 156/3 |
| 36 | 6 | 162/3 |
| 37 | 5 | 167/3 |
| 38 | 5 | 172/3 |
| 39 | 5 | 177/3 |
| 40 | 10 | 187/3 |
| 41 | 12 | 199/3 |
| 42 | 6 | 205/3 |
| 43 | 10 | 215/3 |
| 44 | 11 | 226/3 |
| 45 | 12 | 238/3 |
| 46 | 10 | 248/4 |
| 47 | 3 | 251/5 |
| 48 | 11 | 262/6 |
| 49 | 3 | 265/8 |
| 50 | 15 | 280/10 |
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sandeep Lamichhane: Deshsanchar · CC BY 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karan KC: Helloworld3377 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
