ItalyversusIreland

23 Jan 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Ireland won by 3 wickets

Italy18.1 overs118/10 Ireland19.3 overs119/7 7he Sevens Stadium, Dubai ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Italy more likely to win

63%Italy37%Ireland

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Italy rate stronger than Ireland (1,553 vs 1,428 on our results rating)
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Ireland won 1 and Italy won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Italy started on 60%; Italy batted first.

Italy’s chance of winning (%) · Ireland is the rest

Italy's chances ranged from 0% to 76% during the match (Ireland: 24% to 100%).

Biggest swings

11.4: MJ Humphreys to G Stewart, G Stewart out. Ireland up from 45% to 56%.
12.3: GJ Delany to HJ Manenti, HJ Manenti out. Ireland up from 59% to 69%.
2nd inns 0.2: JT Smuts to PR Stirling, PR Stirling out. Italy up from 18% to 28%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Italy118/10 Ireland119/7

Innings 2

Ireland

119/719.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Ireland batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Paul Stirlingbowled · Jon-Jon Smuts 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Jon-Jon Smuts	0	2	0	0	0.00
Ross Adaircaught · Grant Stewart 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · b Grant Stewart	12	13	1	1	92.31
Harry Tectorcaught · AJ Mosca · Jaspreet Singh 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · AJ Mosca · b Jaspreet Singh	41	40	3	0	102.50
Lorcan Tuckercaught · Jaspreet Singh · Thomas Draca 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Jaspreet Singh · b Thomas Draca	34	34	2	0	100.00
Ben Calitz

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Jon-Jon Smuts0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.3	15	1	4.29	0	0
Grant Stewart0 maidens · 1 wides · 2 no-balls	4.0	21	3	5.25	1	2
Thomas Draca0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	2	6.25	2	0
CJPF Kalugamage0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	23	0	7.67	0	1
Harry Manenti0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	15	0	7.50	0	0
Jaspreet Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	18	1	6.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/1
2	10	12/1
3	8	20/1
4	2	22/2
5	7	29/2
6	9	38/2
7	8	46/2
8	6	52/2
9	10	62/2
10	4	66/2
11	9	75/2
12	6	81/2
13	5	86/2
14	7	93/3
15	6	99/4
16	8	107/4
17	4	111/5
18	1	112/7
19	3	115/7
20	4	119/7

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