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Photo: A Cricket Premi
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
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New Zealand Women tour of India · 2024/25 · Women
24 Oct 2024 · ODI
Motera Stadium, Ahmedabad · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
India started on 69%; India batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Shafali Vermacaught · Brooke Halliday · Eden Carson5 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Brooke Halliday · b Eden Carson | 33 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 150.00 |
 Smriti Mandhanacaught · Georgia Plimmer · Jess Kerr0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Georgia Plimmer · b Jess Kerr | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 71.43 |
| Yastika Bhatiacaught · Eden Carson · Amelia Kerr 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Eden Carson · b Amelia Kerr | 37 | 43 | 5 | 0 | 86.05 |
| Dayalan Hemalathastumped · Izzy Gaze · Eden Carson 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Izzy Gaze · b Eden Carson | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
India's chances ranged from 40% to 100% during the match (New Zealand: 0% to 60%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| lbw · b Suzie Bates |
| 35 |
| 36 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 97.22 |
| Tejal Hasabnisstumped · Izzy Gaze · Amelia Kerr 3 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Izzy Gaze · b Amelia Kerr | 42 | 64 | 3 | 0 | 65.63 |
|---|
 Deepti Sharmabowled · Jess Kerr2 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Jess Kerr | 41 | 51 | 2 | 1 | 80.39 |
|---|
| Arundhati Reddycaught · HM Rowe · Amelia Kerr 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · HM Rowe · b Amelia Kerr | 14 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 60.87 |
|---|
 Radha Yadavcaught and bowled · Jess Kerr0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Jess Kerr | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Saima Thakorcaught · HM Rowe · Amelia Kerr 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · HM Rowe · b Amelia Kerr | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
 Renuka Singhnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 10 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jess Kerr0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 8.3 | 0 | 49 | 3 | 5.76 | 1 | 1 |
| Molly Penfold0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 5.60 | 3 | 0 |
| Eden Carson0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 42 | 2 | 4.20 | 1 | 0 |
 Sophie Devine0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 5.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Amelia Kerr1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 42 | 4 | 4.67 | 0 | 0 |
 Suzie Bates0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 6.00 | 3 | 0 |
| Brooke Halliday0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6.00 | 1 | 1 |
1-12 (Smriti Mandhana, 2.1) · 2-49 (Shafali Verma, 6.3) · 3-71 (Dayalan Hemalatha, 10.5) · 4-91 (Yastika Bhatia, 15.1) · 5-152 (Jemimah Rodrigues, 26.5) · 6-181 (Tejal Hasabnis, 33.3) · 7-218 (Arundhati Reddy, 41.1) · 8-223 (Radha Yadav, 42.1) · 9-226 (Saima Thakor, 43.2) · 10-227 (Deepti Sharma, 44.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 8 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 9 | 21/1 |
| 4 | 7 | 28/1 |
| 5 | 17 | 45/1 |
| 6 | 4 | 49/1 |
| 7 | 2 | 51/2 |
| 8 | 5 | 56/2 |
| 9 | 7 | 63/2 |
| 10 | 6 | 69/2 |
| 11 | 3 | 72/3 |
| 12 | 3 | 75/3 |
| 13 | 5 | 80/3 |
| 14 | 7 | 87/3 |
| 15 | 4 | 91/3 |
| 16 | 4 | 95/4 |
| 17 | 3 | 98/4 |
| 18 | 2 | 100/4 |
| 19 | 2 | 102/4 |
| 20 | 9 | 111/4 |
| 21 | 5 | 116/4 |
| 22 | 10 | 126/4 |
| 23 | 5 | 131/4 |
| 24 | 4 | 135/4 |
| 25 | 8 | 143/4 |
| 26 | 6 | 149/4 |
| 27 | 4 | 153/5 |
| 28 | 1 | 154/5 |
| 29 | 4 | 158/5 |
| 30 | 3 | 161/5 |
| 31 | 4 | 165/5 |
| 32 | 11 | 176/5 |
| 33 | 4 | 180/5 |
| 34 | 3 | 183/6 |
| 35 | 3 | 186/6 |
| 36 | 2 | 188/6 |
| 37 | 7 | 195/6 |
| 38 | 6 | 201/6 |
| 39 | 4 | 205/6 |
| 40 | 10 | 215/6 |
| 41 | 3 | 218/6 |
| 42 | 5 | 223/7 |
| 43 | 3 | 226/8 |
| 44 | 0 | 226/9 |
| 45 | 1 | 227/10 |
Deepti Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Renuka Singh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Jemimah Rodrigues: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Maddy Green: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophie Devine: YellowMonkey · CC BY-SA 3.0
Amelia Kerr: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Radha Yadav: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shafali Verma: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Smriti Mandhana: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Suzie Bates: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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