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Photo: A Cricket Premi
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
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New Zealand Women tour of India · 2024/25 · Women
24 Oct 2024 · ODI
Motera Stadium, Ahmedabad · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
India started on 69%; India batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Suzie Batescaught · Yastika Bhatia · Saima Thakor0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Yastika Bhatia · b Saima Thakor | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| Georgia Plimmercaught and bowled · Deepti Sharma 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Deepti Sharma | 25 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Lauren Downcaught · Tejal Hasabnis · Radha Yadav 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tejal Hasabnis · b Radha Yadav | 26 | 56 | 1 | 0 | 46.43 |
 Sophie Devinerun out · Yastika Bhatia, Deepti Sharma · Deepti Sharma0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Yastika Bhatia, Deepti Sharma | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
India's chances ranged from 40% to 100% during the match (New Zealand: 0% to 60%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught and bowled · b Saima Thakor |
| 39 |
| 54 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 72.22 |
 Maddy Greenrun out · Smriti Mandhana · Saima Thakor5 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Smriti Mandhana | 31 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 96.88 |
|---|
| Izzy Gazecaught · Saima Thakor · Arundhati Reddy 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Saima Thakor · b Arundhati Reddy | 9 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Jess Kerrcaught · Saima Thakor · Radha Yadav 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Saima Thakor · b Radha Yadav | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
 Amelia Kerrnot out2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 25* | 23 | 2 | 0 | 108.70 |
|---|
| Molly Penfoldbowled · Radha Yadav 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Radha Yadav | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Eden Carsonrun out · Dayalan Hemalatha, Radha Yadav · Radha Yadav 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Dayalan Hemalatha, Radha Yadav | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 5 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Renuka Singh0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 4.29 | 3 | 0 |
| Saima Thakor0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 26 | 2 | 3.71 | 1 | 0 |
 Deepti Sharma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 35 | 1 | 3.89 | 0 | 0 |
| Arundhati Reddy0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 3.50 | 0 | 1 |
 Radha Yadav0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.4 | 0 | 35 | 3 | 4.04 | 1 | 0 |
| Dayalan Hemalatha0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Shafali Verma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-7 (Suzie Bates, 1.3) · 2-40 (Georgia Plimmer, 9.5) · 3-46 (Sophie Devine, 12.0) · 4-79 (Lauren Down, 18.5) · 5-128 (Brooke Halliday, 29.1) · 6-128 (Maddy Green, 29.4) · 7-131 (Jess Kerr, 30.4) · 8-167 (Izzy Gaze, 39.5) · 9-168 (Molly Penfold, 40.3) · 10-168 (Eden Carson, 40.4)
Recorded target: 228 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 8/1 |
| 3 | 6 | 14/1 |
| 4 | 4 | 18/1 |
| 5 | 1 | 19/1 |
| 6 | 12 | 31/1 |
| 7 | 4 | 35/1 |
| 8 | 1 | 36/1 |
| 9 | 2 | 38/1 |
| 10 | 2 | 40/2 |
| 11 | 5 | 45/2 |
| 12 | 1 | 46/3 |
| 13 | 3 | 49/3 |
| 14 | 7 | 56/3 |
| 15 | 8 | 64/3 |
| 16 | 2 | 66/3 |
| 17 | 2 | 68/3 |
| 18 | 5 | 73/3 |
| 19 | 6 | 79/4 |
| 20 | 1 | 80/4 |
| 21 | 8 | 88/4 |
| 22 | 4 | 92/4 |
| 23 | 2 | 94/4 |
| 24 | 3 | 97/4 |
| 25 | 9 | 106/4 |
| 26 | 6 | 112/4 |
| 27 | 10 | 122/4 |
| 28 | 1 | 123/4 |
| 29 | 5 | 128/4 |
| 30 | 1 | 129/6 |
| 31 | 2 | 131/7 |
| 32 | 1 | 132/7 |
| 33 | 3 | 135/7 |
| 34 | 6 | 141/7 |
| 35 | 3 | 144/7 |
| 36 | 3 | 147/7 |
| 37 | 3 | 150/7 |
| 38 | 3 | 153/7 |
| 39 | 9 | 162/7 |
| 40 | 6 | 168/8 |
| 41 | 0 | 168/10 |
Deepti Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Renuka Singh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Jemimah Rodrigues: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Maddy Green: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophie Devine: YellowMonkey · CC BY-SA 3.0
Amelia Kerr: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Radha Yadav: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shafali Verma: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Smriti Mandhana: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Suzie Bates: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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