**Newlands, Cape Town**
Photo: The original uploader was PaddyBriggs at English Wikipedia.
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Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

SA20 · 2024/25 · Men

Joburg Super KingsversusMI Cape Town

18 Jan 2025 · T20

Newlands, Cape Town · Venue photograph

Recorded result

MI Cape Town won by 7 wickets

Joburg Super Kings20.0 overs172/5 MI Cape Town15.5 overs173/3 Newlands, Cape Town ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Joburg Super Kings started on 51%; Joburg Super Kings batted first.

Joburg Super Kings’s chance of winning (%) · MI Cape Town is the rest

Joburg Super Kings's chances ranged from 0% to 78% during the match (MI Cape Town: 22% to 100%).

Biggest swings

13.3: RR Hendricks to WJ Lubbe, WJ Lubbe out. MI Cape Town up from 44% to 50%.
2nd inns 2.1: D Ferreira to HE van der Dussen, six by HE van der Dussen. MI Cape Town up from 43% to 50%.
2nd inns 6.4: T Shamsi to HE van der Dussen, HE van der Dussen out. Joburg Super Kings up from 17% to 25%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.