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Sri Lanka Women tour of New Zealand · 2024/25 · Women
7 Mar 2025 · ODI
Saxton Oval, Nelson · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 67%; New Zealand batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Suzie Batesrun out · Kavisha Dilhari, Anushka Sanjeewani · Inoshi Priyadharshani0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Kavisha Dilhari, Anushka Sanjeewani | 5 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 35.71 |
| Georgia Plimmercaught · Manudi Nanayakkara · Chamari Atapattu 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Manudi Nanayakkara · b Chamari Atapattu | 28 | 54 | 4 | 0 | 51.85 |
| Emma McLeodcaught · Sugandika Kumari · Achini Kulasuriya 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sugandika Kumari · b Achini Kulasuriya | 6 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
| Brooke Hallidaycaught · Achini Kulasuriya · Chamari Atapattu 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Achini Kulasuriya · b Chamari Atapattu | 6 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 37.50 |
 |
New Zealand's chances ranged from 35% to 100% during the match (Sri Lanka: 0% to 66%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| run out · Nilakshi de Silva |
| 100 |
| 109 |
| 7 |
| 0 |
| 91.74 |
| Izzy Gazecaught · Inoshi Priyadharshani · Kavisha Dilhari 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Inoshi Priyadharshani · b Kavisha Dilhari | 19 | 33 | 1 | 0 | 57.58 |
|---|
| Jess Kerrbowled · Inoshi Priyadharshani 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Inoshi Priyadharshani | 38 | 44 | 2 | 0 | 86.36 |
|---|
| Polly Inglisnot out 5 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 34* | 21 | 5 | 0 | 161.90 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Achini Kulasuriya0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 46 | 1 | 5.11 | 0 | 0 |
| Inoshi Priyadharshani0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 43 | 1 | 4.78 | 3 | 0 |
| Chethana Vimukthi0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 5.80 | 2 | 0 |
 Sugandika Kumari1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 38 | 0 | 4.22 | 0 | 0 |
 Chamari Atapattu1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 42 | 2 | 4.20 | 1 | 0 |
 Kavisha Dilhari0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 44 | 1 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-7 (Suzie Bates, 3.4) · 2-23 (Emma McLeod, 6.2) · 3-46 (Brooke Halliday, 12.0) · 4-59 (Georgia Plimmer, 18.0) · 5-110 (Izzy Gaze, 29.3) · 6-183 (Jess Kerr, 42.4) · 7-245 (Maddy Green, 50.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 4/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 5/0 |
| 4 | 3 | 8/1 |
| 5 | 4 | 12/1 |
| 6 | 11 | 23/1 |
| 7 | 4 | 27/2 |
| 8 | 5 | 32/2 |
| 9 | 3 | 35/2 |
| 10 | 8 | 43/2 |
| 11 | 2 | 45/2 |
| 12 | 1 | 46/3 |
| 13 | 1 | 47/3 |
| 14 | 0 | 47/3 |
| 15 | 2 | 49/3 |
| 16 | 4 | 53/3 |
| 17 | 3 | 56/3 |
| 18 | 3 | 59/4 |
| 19 | 0 | 59/4 |
| 20 | 4 | 63/4 |
| 21 | 7 | 70/4 |
| 22 | 4 | 74/4 |
| 23 | 1 | 75/4 |
| 24 | 8 | 83/4 |
| 25 | 5 | 88/4 |
| 26 | 2 | 90/4 |
| 27 | 10 | 100/4 |
| 28 | 4 | 104/4 |
| 29 | 5 | 109/4 |
| 30 | 4 | 113/5 |
| 31 | 2 | 115/5 |
| 32 | 4 | 119/5 |
| 33 | 3 | 122/5 |
| 34 | 5 | 127/5 |
| 35 | 4 | 131/5 |
| 36 | 5 | 136/5 |
| 37 | 3 | 139/5 |
| 38 | 5 | 144/5 |
| 39 | 14 | 158/5 |
| 40 | 3 | 161/5 |
| 41 | 8 | 169/5 |
| 42 | 9 | 178/5 |
| 43 | 7 | 185/6 |
| 44 | 8 | 193/6 |
| 45 | 8 | 201/6 |
| 46 | 11 | 212/6 |
| 47 | 9 | 221/6 |
| 48 | 9 | 230/6 |
| 49 | 7 | 237/6 |
| 50 | 8 | 245/7 |
Chamari Atapattu: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nilakshi de Silva: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sugandika Kumari: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Maddy Green: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harshitha Madavi: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kavisha Dilhari: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Anushka Sanjeewani: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Suzie Bates: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Achini Kulasuriya: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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