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Photo: Nelsonpubliclibraries
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Sri Lanka Women tour of New Zealand · 2024/25 · Women
7 Mar 2025 · ODI
Saxton Oval, Nelson · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 67%; New Zealand batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vishmi Gunaratnecaught · Jess Kerr · Hannah Rowe 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jess Kerr · b Hannah Rowe | 8 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 50.00 |
 Chamari Atapattucaught · Hannah Rowe · Bree Illing2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hannah Rowe · b Bree Illing | 11 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 68.75 |
 Harshitha Madavicaught · Brooke Halliday · Hannah Rowe4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brooke Halliday · b Hannah Rowe | 59 | 77 | 4 | 0 | 76.62 |
 Kavisha Dilharicaught · Polly Inglis · Eden Carson1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Polly Inglis |
New Zealand's chances ranged from 35% to 100% during the match (Sri Lanka: 0% to 66%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 25 |
| 42 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 59.52 |
| Manudi Nanayakkaracaught · Polly Inglis · Bree Illing 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Polly Inglis · b Bree Illing | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Nilakshi de Silvalbw · Suzie Bates1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Suzie Bates | 20 | 44 | 1 | 0 | 45.45 |
|---|
 Anushka Sanjeewanirun out · Jess Kerr · Jess Kerr1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Jess Kerr | 13 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 68.42 |
|---|
 Sugandika Kumarinot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 11* | 33 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
 Achini Kulasuriyacaught · Emma McLeod · Hannah Rowe0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Emma McLeod · b Hannah Rowe | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Inoshi Priyadharshanicaught · Polly Inglis · Hannah Rowe 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Polly Inglis · b Hannah Rowe | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Chethana Vimukthicaught · Suzie Bates · Eden Carson 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Suzie Bates · b Eden Carson | 3 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 21.43 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 14 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bree Illing0 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 45 | 2 | 4.50 | 7 | 0 |
| Jess Kerr1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 23 | 0 | 2.30 | 1 | 0 |
| Hannah Rowe1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 31 | 4 | 3.10 | 3 | 0 |
| Eden Carson0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.4 | 0 | 30 | 2 | 3.46 | 1 | 0 |
| Brooke Halliday0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 7.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Suzie Bates0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-16 (Chamari Atapattu, 4.1) · 2-31 (Vishmi Gunaratne, 7.5) · 3-99 (Kavisha Dilhari, 21.2) · 4-101 (Manudi Nanayakkara, 23.0) · 5-128 (Harshitha Madavi, 32.3) · 6-140 (Nilakshi de Silva, 35.3) · 7-156 (Anushka Sanjeewani, 39.1) · 8-158 (Achini Kulasuriya, 40.2) · 9-160 (Inoshi Priyadharshani, 42.3) · 10-167 (Chethana Vimukthi, 46.4)
Recorded target: 246 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 8/0 |
| 3 | 7 | 15/0 |
| 4 | 1 | 16/0 |
| 5 | 3 | 19/1 |
| 6 | 5 | 24/1 |
| 7 | 4 | 28/1 |
| 8 | 3 | 31/2 |
| 9 | 9 | 40/2 |
| 10 | 5 | 45/2 |
| 11 | 5 | 50/2 |
| 12 | 3 | 53/2 |
| 13 | 1 | 54/2 |
| 14 | 7 | 61/2 |
| 15 | 0 | 61/2 |
| 16 | 6 | 67/2 |
| 17 | 8 | 75/2 |
| 18 | 4 | 79/2 |
| 19 | 4 | 83/2 |
| 20 | 5 | 88/2 |
| 21 | 9 | 97/2 |
| 22 | 2 | 99/3 |
| 23 | 2 | 101/4 |
| 24 | 1 | 102/4 |
| 25 | 3 | 105/4 |
| 26 | 4 | 109/4 |
| 27 | 4 | 113/4 |
| 28 | 4 | 117/4 |
| 29 | 4 | 121/4 |
| 30 | 4 | 125/4 |
| 31 | 1 | 126/4 |
| 32 | 1 | 127/4 |
| 33 | 3 | 130/5 |
| 34 | 2 | 132/5 |
| 35 | 5 | 137/5 |
| 36 | 4 | 141/6 |
| 37 | 8 | 149/6 |
| 38 | 4 | 153/6 |
| 39 | 3 | 156/6 |
| 40 | 2 | 158/7 |
| 41 | 0 | 158/8 |
| 42 | 1 | 159/8 |
| 43 | 1 | 160/9 |
| 44 | 2 | 162/9 |
| 45 | 3 | 165/9 |
| 46 | 1 | 166/9 |
| 47 | 1 | 167/10 |
Chamari Atapattu: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nilakshi de Silva: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sugandika Kumari: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Maddy Green: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harshitha Madavi: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kavisha Dilhari: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Anushka Sanjeewani: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Suzie Bates: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Achini Kulasuriya: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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