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Sri Lanka tour of England · 2026 · Men
27 Sept 2026 · ODI
The Oval · Venue photographEngland more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 58%; England batted first.
England's chances ranged from 44% to 100% during the match (Sri Lanka: 0% to 56%).
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Bantoncaught · Eshan Malinga · Sachindu Colombage 16 fours · 5 sixes | caught · Eshan Malinga · b Sachindu Colombage | 126 | 105 | 16 | 5 | 120.00 |
 Ben Duckettbowled · Dilshan Madushanka0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Dilshan Madushanka | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Joe Rootlbw · Janith Liyanage1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Janith Liyanage | 18 | 37 | 1 | 0 | 48.65 |
 Harry Brookcaught · Dunith Wellalage · Asitha Fernando9 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Dunith Wellalage · b Asitha Fernando | 77 | 66 |
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 9 |
| 2 |
| 116.67 |
| Jordan Coxbowled · Asitha Fernando 6 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Asitha Fernando | 76 | 52 | 6 | 2 | 146.15 |
|---|
 Will Jackscaught · Charith Asalanka · Sachindu Colombage2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Charith Asalanka · b Sachindu Colombage | 25 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 119.05 |
|---|
 Jamie Overtonnot out1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 21* | 14 | 1 | 0 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Liam Dawsonbowled · Asitha Fernando 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Asitha Fernando | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 4 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asitha Fernando0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 64 | 3 | 7.11 | 0 | 1 |
| Dilshan Madushanka0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 49 | 1 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Eshan Malinga0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 65 | 0 | 7.22 | 0 | 0 |
| Dunith Wellalage1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 62 | 0 | 6.89 | 1 | 0 |
 Janith Liyanage0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 37 | 1 | 6.17 | 2 | 0 |
| Sachindu Colombage0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 71 | 2 | 7.10 | 1 | 0 |
1-6 (Ben Duckett, 1.2) · 2-68 (Joe Root, 15.1) · 3-218 (Harry Brook, 34.4) · 4-242 (Tom Banton, 38.0) · 5-287 (Will Jacks, 44.0) · 6-355 (Jordan Cox, 49.5) · 7-355 (Liam Dawson, 50.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 7/1 |
| 3 | 6 | 13/1 |
| 4 | 8 | 21/1 |
| 5 | 7 | 28/1 |
| 6 | 6 | 34/1 |
| 7 | 4 | 38/1 |
| 8 | 5 | 43/1 |
| 9 | 5 | 48/1 |
| 10 | 2 | 50/1 |
| 11 | 1 | 51/1 |
| 12 | 1 | 52/1 |
| 13 | 7 | 59/1 |
| 14 | 6 | 65/1 |
| 15 | 3 | 68/1 |
| 16 | 4 | 72/2 |
| 17 | 2 | 74/2 |
| 18 | 3 | 77/2 |
| 19 | 9 | 86/2 |
| 20 | 1 | 87/2 |
| 21 | 0 | 87/2 |
| 22 | 5 | 92/2 |
| 23 | 5 | 97/2 |
| 24 | 7 | 104/2 |
| 25 | 4 | 108/2 |
| 26 | 17 | 125/2 |
| 27 | 5 | 130/2 |
| 28 | 6 | 136/2 |
| 29 | 11 | 147/2 |
| 30 | 10 | 157/2 |
| 31 | 12 | 169/2 |
| 32 | 6 | 175/2 |
| 33 | 17 | 192/2 |
| 34 | 22 | 214/2 |
| 35 | 5 | 219/3 |
| 36 | 5 | 224/3 |
| 37 | 7 | 231/3 |
| 38 | 11 | 242/4 |
| 39 | 7 | 249/4 |
| 40 | 2 | 251/4 |
| 41 | 8 | 259/4 |
| 42 | 5 | 264/4 |
| 43 | 15 | 279/4 |
| 44 | 8 | 287/5 |
| 45 | 11 | 298/5 |
| 46 | 9 | 307/5 |
| 47 | 10 | 317/5 |
| 48 | 20 | 337/5 |
| 49 | 11 | 348/5 |
| 50 | 7 | 355/7 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Overton: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Janith Liyanage: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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