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Sri Lanka tour of England · 2026 · Men
27 Sept 2026 · ODI
The Oval · Venue photographEngland more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 58%; England batted first.
England's chances ranged from 44% to 100% during the match (Sri Lanka: 0% to 56%).
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pathum Nissankacaught · Jordan Cox · Sonny Baker 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jordan Cox · b Sonny Baker | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
| Kamindu Mendiscaught · Ben Duckett · Gus Atkinson 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ben Duckett · b Gus Atkinson | 12 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 63.16 |
| Kusal Mendiscaught · Tom Banton · Gus Atkinson 2 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Tom Banton · b Gus Atkinson | 35 | 26 | 2 | 3 | 134.62 |
| Pavan Rathnayakerun out · Jofra Archer · Liam Dawson 2 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Jofra Archer | 18 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 72.00 |
| Charith Asalankacaught · Jamie Overton · Joe Root 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jamie Overton · b Joe Root | 7 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 36.84 |
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
 Janith Liyanagecaught · Jordan Cox · Jamie Overton1 fours · 1 sixes |
|---|
| caught · Jordan Cox · b Jamie Overton |
| 19 |
| 20 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 95.00 |
| Dunith Wellalagecaught · Sonny Baker · Liam Dawson 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sonny Baker · b Liam Dawson | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 83.33 |
|---|
| Sachindu Colombagestumped · Jordan Cox · Liam Dawson 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Jordan Cox · b Liam Dawson | 4 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 21.05 |
|---|
| Eshan Malingacaught · Joe Root · Will Jacks 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Joe Root · b Will Jacks | 14 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 73.68 |
|---|
| Asitha Fernandocaught · Jamie Overton · Liam Dawson 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jamie Overton · b Liam Dawson | 6 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Dilshan Madushankanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 10 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Atkinson0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 26 | 2 | 5.20 | 0 | 0 |
| Sonny Baker0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 6.75 | 3 | 0 |
 Jofra Archer0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Will Jacks0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.1 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 2.53 | 0 | 0 |
| Liam Dawson0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 26 | 3 | 3.25 | 1 | 0 |
 Joe Root0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Jamie Overton0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 3.33 | 0 | 0 |
1-1 (Pathum Nissanka, 1.2) · 2-36 (Kamindu Mendis, 6.4) · 3-53 (Kusal Mendis, 9.0) · 4-77 (Pavan Rathnayake, 15.0) · 5-77 (Charith Asalanka, 15.2) · 6-82 (Dunith Wellalage, 16.2) · 7-104 (Sachindu Colombage, 22.3) · 8-106 (Janith Liyanage, 23.1) · 9-120 (Asitha Fernando, 26.2) · 10-132 (Eshan Malinga, 29.1)
Recorded target: 356 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 2/1 |
| 3 | 4 | 6/1 |
| 4 | 5 | 11/1 |
| 5 | 13 | 24/1 |
| 6 | 9 | 33/1 |
| 7 | 3 | 36/2 |
| 8 | 12 | 48/2 |
| 9 | 5 | 53/3 |
| 10 | 10 | 63/3 |
| 11 | 3 | 66/3 |
| 12 | 2 | 68/3 |
| 13 | 3 | 71/3 |
| 14 | 3 | 74/3 |
| 15 | 3 | 77/4 |
| 16 | 1 | 78/5 |
| 17 | 4 | 82/6 |
| 18 | 3 | 85/6 |
| 19 | 3 | 88/6 |
| 20 | 11 | 99/6 |
| 21 | 3 | 102/6 |
| 22 | 2 | 104/6 |
| 23 | 2 | 106/7 |
| 24 | 6 | 112/8 |
| 25 | 1 | 113/8 |
| 26 | 6 | 119/8 |
| 27 | 1 | 120/9 |
| 28 | 3 | 123/9 |
| 29 | 9 | 132/9 |
| 30 | 0 | 132/10 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Overton: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Janith Liyanage: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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