Chattogram ChallengersversusFortune Barishal

27 Jan 2024 · T20

Sylhet International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Chattogram Challengers won by 10 runs

Chattogram Challengers20.0 overs193/4 Fortune Barishal20.0 overs183/7 Sylhet International Cricket Stadium ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Chattogram Challengers started on 44%; Chattogram Challengers batted first.

Chattogram Challengers’s chance of winning (%) · Fortune Barishal is the rest

Chattogram Challengers's chances ranged from 33% to 99% during the match (Fortune Barishal: 1% to 67%).

Biggest swings

0.5: Taijul Islam to Tanzid Hasan, Tanzid Hasan out. Fortune Barishal up from 44% to 56%.
2nd inns 5.3: Bilal Khan to Ahmed Shehzad, Ahmed Shehzad out. Chattogram Challengers up from 56% to 68%.
2nd inns 10.2: C Campher to Tamim Iqbal, Tamim Iqbal out. Chattogram Challengers up from 60% to 72%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.