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Photo: St Kitts & Nevis Government; permission: https://www.flickr.com/photos/skngov/14733563912
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Australia tour of West Indies · 2025 · Men
28 Jul 2025 · T20
Warner Park, St Kitts · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
West Indies started on 10%; West Indies batted first.
West Indies's chances ranged from 0% to 36% during the match (Australia: 64% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mitchell Marshbowled · Alzarri Joseph3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Alzarri Joseph | 14 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 175.00 |
 Glenn Maxwellcaught · Jediah Blades · Jason Holder0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jediah Blades · b Jason Holder | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Josh Ingliscaught · Matthew Forde · Jason Holder2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Matthew Forde · b Jason Holder | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 200.00 |
 Cameron Greencaught · Matthew Forde · Akeal Hosein5 fours · 0 sixes |
| caught · Matthew Forde · b Akeal Hosein |
| 32 |
| 18 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 177.78 |
| Tim Davidcaught · Shimron Hetmyer · Alzarri Joseph 1 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Shimron Hetmyer · b Alzarri Joseph | 30 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 250.00 |
|---|
| Mitchell Owencaught · Alzarri Joseph · Akeal Hosein 3 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Alzarri Joseph · b Akeal Hosein | 37 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 217.65 |
|---|
| Aaron Hardienot out 2 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 28* | 25 | 2 | 1 | 112.00 |
|---|
| Ben Dwarshuiscaught · J Andrew · Akeal Hosein 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · J Andrew · b Akeal Hosein | 9 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 64.29 |
|---|
 Sean Abbottnot out1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 3 | 1 | 0 | 166.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 7 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jediah Blades0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 12.67 | 1 | 1 |
 Jason Holder0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 36 | 2 | 12.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Alzarri Joseph0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.1 | 0 | 21 | 2 | 9.69 | 1 | 0 |
| Matthew Forde0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 11.67 | 2 | 0 |
| Romario Shepherd0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.5 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 14.18 | 1 | 0 |
| Akeal Hosein0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 3 | 4.25 | 1 | 0 |
1-12 (Glenn Maxwell, 1.1) · 2-23 (Josh Inglis, 2.0) · 3-25 (Mitchell Marsh, 2.2) · 4-60 (Tim David, 4.4) · 5-123 (Mitchell Owen, 9.2) · 6-141 (Cameron Green, 12.0) · 7-166 (Ben Dwarshuis, 16.0)
Recorded target: 171 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | 12/0 |
| 2 | 11 | 23/2 |
| 3 | 7 | 30/3 |
| 4 | 17 | 47/3 |
| 5 | 14 | 61/4 |
| 6 | 6 | 67/4 |
| 7 | 12 | 79/4 |
| 8 | 22 | 101/4 |
| 9 | 21 | 122/4 |
| 10 | 2 | 124/5 |
| 11 | 14 | 138/5 |
| 12 | 3 | 141/6 |
| 13 | 8 | 149/6 |
| 14 | 4 | 153/6 |
| 15 | 5 | 158/6 |
| 16 | 8 | 166/7 |
| 17 | 7 | 173/7 |
Mitchell Marsh: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Adam Zampa: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jason Holder: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Josh Inglis: Prime Video AU & NZ · CC BY 3.0
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Cameron Green: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sean Abbott: Naparazzi · CC BY-SA 2.0
Shimron Hetmyer: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Glenn Maxwell: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
