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ICC Women's T20 World Cup Qualifier · 2024 · Women
29 Apr 2024 · T20
Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi · Venue photographRecorded result
Ireland more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Ireland started on 72%; Ireland batted first.
Ireland's chances ranged from 73% to 100% during the match (Zimbabwe: 0% to 27%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sharne Mayerscaught · Laura Delany · Ava Canning 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Laura Delany · b Ava Canning | 8 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 80.00 |
| Modester Mupachikwabowled · Laura Delany 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Laura Delany | 27 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 96.43 |
| Chipo Mugericaught · Jane Maguire · Ava Canning 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jane Maguire · b Ava Canning | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 57.14 |
| Mary-Anne Musondacaught · Orla Prendergast · Cara Murray 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Orla Prendergast · b Cara Murray | 48 | 39 | 4 | 0 | 123.08 |
| Kelis Ndhlovucaught · Laura Delany · Arlene Kelly 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Laura Delany · b Arlene Kelly | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Pellagia Mujajicaught · Amy Hunter · Eimear Richardson 0 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| caught · Amy Hunter · b Eimear Richardson |
| 4 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 66.67 |
| Ashley Ndirayacaught · Eimear Richardson · Cara Murray 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Eimear Richardson · b Cara Murray | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Josephine Nkomocaught · Orla Prendergast · Laura Delany 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Orla Prendergast · b Laura Delany | 6 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
| Audrey Mazvishayanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 11* | 13 | 0 | 0 | 84.62 |
|---|
| Francisca Chiparenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ava Canning0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 4.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Jane Maguire0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 5.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Cara Murray0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 29 | 2 | 7.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Eimear Richardson0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 5.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Arlene Kelly0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 19 | 1 | 6.33 | 5 | 0 |
| Laura Delany0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 19 | 2 | 6.33 | 1 | 0 |
1-14 (Sharne Mayers, 2.4) · 2-20 (Chipo Mugeri, 4.3) · 3-76 (Modester Mupachikwa, 11.4) · 4-84 (Kelis Ndhlovu, 12.4) · 5-100 (Mary-Anne Musonda, 15.2) · 6-102 (Ashley Ndiraya, 15.5) · 7-102 (Pellagia Mujaji, 16.1) · 8-119 (Josephine Nkomo, 19.5)
Recorded target: 177 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 13/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 15/1 |
| 4 | 4 | 19/1 |
| 5 | 3 | 22/2 |
| 6 | 8 | 30/2 |
| 7 | 8 | 38/2 |
| 8 | 5 | 43/2 |
| 9 | 12 | 55/2 |
| 10 | 10 | 65/2 |
| 11 | 7 | 72/2 |
| 12 | 5 | 77/3 |
| 13 | 8 | 85/4 |
| 14 | 11 | 96/4 |
| 15 | 2 | 98/4 |
| 16 | 4 | 102/6 |
| 17 | 4 | 106/7 |
| 18 | 5 | 111/7 |
| 19 | 5 | 116/7 |
| 20 | 4 | 120/8 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.