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Photo: Krish Dulal
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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2023/24 · Men
21 Feb 2024 · ODI
Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur · Venue photographRecorded result
Nepal more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Nepal started on 58%; Nepal batted first.
Nepal's chances ranged from 1% to 76% during the match (Namibia: 24% to 99%).
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Pierre Kotzebowled · Rohit Kumar 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Rohit Kumar | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
| Niko Davinrun out · Dipendra Singh Airee, Sompal Kami · Dipendra Singh Airee 2 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Dipendra Singh Airee, Sompal Kami | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 160.00 |
| Michael van Lingenstumped · Aasif Sheikh · Kushal Malla 4 fours · 2 sixes | stumped · Aasif Sheikh · b Kushal Malla | 31 | 34 | 4 | 2 | 91.18 |
| Gerhard Erasmuscaught · Karan KC · Kushal Bhurtel 8 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Karan KC · b Kushal Bhurtel | 52 | 56 | 8 | 2 | 92.86 |
| Jan Frylincklbw · Dipendra Singh Airee 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Dipendra Singh Airee | 4 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 26.67 |
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| JJ Smitnot out 1 fours · 2 sixes |
|---|
| not out |
| 34* |
| 66 |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 51.52 |
| Jan Nicol Loftie-Eatoncaught · Aasif Sheikh · Kushal Bhurtel 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aasif Sheikh · b Kushal Bhurtel | 5 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 29.41 |
|---|
| Zane Greenbowled · Lalit Rajbanshi 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Lalit Rajbanshi | 6 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
|---|
| Ruben Trumpelmanncaught · D Khanal · Kushal Bhurtel 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · D Khanal · b Kushal Bhurtel | 16 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 133.33 |
|---|
| Bernard Scholtznot out 2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 8* | 5 | 2 | 0 | 160.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sompal Kami0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 5.33 | 0 | 0 |
 Dipendra Singh Airee0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 2.43 | 1 | 0 |
 Rohit Kumar1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 1 | 29 | 1 | 4.14 | 0 | 0 |
| Lalit Rajbanshi1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 1 | 47 | 1 | 6.71 | 1 | 0 |
 Karan KC0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 4.75 | 0 | 0 |
 Kushal Malla3 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 3 | 15 | 1 | 2.14 | 1 | 0 |
 Kushal Bhurtel0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 28 | 3 | 5.60 | 1 | 0 |
1-10 (Niko Davin, 1.4) · 2-17 (Jean-Pierre Kotze, 4.1) · 3-69 (Michael van Lingen, 12.1) · 4-86 (Jan Frylinck, 17.3) · 5-103 (Gerhard Erasmus, 22.0) · 6-118 (Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton, 28.4) · 7-142 (Zane Green, 34.2) · 8-164 (Ruben Trumpelmann, 39.1)
Recorded target: 169 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 9/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 10/1 |
| 3 | 3 | 13/1 |
| 4 | 4 | 17/1 |
| 5 | 5 | 22/2 |
| 6 | 4 | 26/2 |
| 7 | 14 | 40/2 |
| 8 | 4 | 44/2 |
| 9 | 6 | 50/2 |
| 10 | 1 | 51/2 |
| 11 | 14 | 65/2 |
| 12 | 4 | 69/2 |
| 13 | 1 | 70/3 |
| 14 | 0 | 70/3 |
| 15 | 3 | 73/3 |
| 16 | 5 | 78/3 |
| 17 | 7 | 85/3 |
| 18 | 1 | 86/4 |
| 19 | 12 | 98/4 |
| 20 | 1 | 99/4 |
| 21 | 0 | 99/4 |
| 22 | 4 | 103/5 |
| 23 | 0 | 103/5 |
| 24 | 2 | 105/5 |
| 25 | 0 | 105/5 |
| 26 | 3 | 108/5 |
| 27 | 4 | 112/5 |
| 28 | 5 | 117/5 |
| 29 | 1 | 118/6 |
| 30 | 1 | 119/6 |
| 31 | 8 | 127/6 |
| 32 | 3 | 130/6 |
| 33 | 3 | 133/6 |
| 34 | 9 | 142/6 |
| 35 | 1 | 143/7 |
| 36 | 7 | 150/7 |
| 37 | 4 | 154/7 |
| 38 | 10 | 164/7 |
| 39 | 0 | 164/7 |
| 40 | 8 | 172/8 |
Sompal Kami: सरोज कुमार ढकाल · CC BY-SA 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Bhurtel: Kushal Bhurtel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karan KC: Helloworld3377 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Malla: Hamro Khelkud · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
