UP WarriorzversusMumbai Indians

17 Jan 2026 · T20

Dr DY Patil Sports Academy, Navi Mumbai · Venue photograph

Recorded result

UP Warriorz won by 22 runs

UP Warriorz20.0 overs187/8 Mumbai Indians20.0 overs165/6 Dr DY Patil Sports Academy, Navi Mumbai ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

UP Warriorz started on 37%; UP Warriorz batted first.

UP Warriorz’s chance of winning (%) · Mumbai Indians is the rest

UP Warriorz's chances ranged from 29% to 100% during the match (Mumbai Indians: 0% to 71%).

Biggest swings

0.4: NJ Carey to KP Navgire, KP Navgire out. Mumbai Indians up from 59% to 71%.
2nd inns 2.5: K Goud to S Sajana, S Sajana out. UP Warriorz up from 52% to 65%.
2nd inns 3.2: S Ecclestone to HK Matthews, HK Matthews out. UP Warriorz up from 67% to 79%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.