FijiversusSouth Korea

17 May 2026 · T20

Recorded result

South Korea won by 7 wickets

Fiji20.0 overs107/7 South Korea14.2 overs109/3 Sano International Cricket Ground 2 ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

South Korea more likely to win

40%Fiji60%South Korea

Why

In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, South Korea won 1 and Fiji won 0
On results in T20 internationals so far, South Korea rate stronger than Fiji (1,346 vs 1,316 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Fiji started on 37%; Fiji batted first.

Fiji’s chance of winning (%) · South Korea is the rest

Fiji's chances ranged from 0% to 43% during the match (South Korea: 57% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.2: CV Ranasinghe to PV Vuniwaqa, PV Vuniwaqa out. South Korea up from 66% to 73%.
4.5: Sageer Ahmad to V Veiqravi, V Veiqravi out. South Korea up from 72% to 78%.
2nd inns 4.6: SM Tupou to Sageer Ahmad, Sageer Ahmad out. Fiji up from 11% to 16%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Fiji107/7 South Korea109/3

Innings 1

Fiji

107/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Fiji batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Peni Vuniwaqacaught · AS Broomfield · Chamith Ranasinghe 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · AS Broomfield · b Chamith Ranasinghe	1	7	0	0	14.29
M Ravulanot out 4 fours · 1 sixes	not out	47*	45	4	1	104.44
V Veiqravicaught · Muhammad Nadeem · Sageer Ahmad 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Muhammad Nadeem · b Sageer Ahmad	8	14	2	0	57.14
N Acaweicaught · Chamith Ranasinghe · Kuldeep Gurjar 0 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Chamith Ranasinghe · b Kuldeep Gurjar	25	25	0	2	100.00
SM Tupoulbw · Sameera Maduranga 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Sameera Maduranga	1	6	0	0	16.67

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Sageer Ahmad0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	10	1	2.50	0
Chamith Ranasinghe0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	10	1	5.00	1
Daham Madampage0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	0	6.25	0
Sameera Maduranga0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	18	3	4.50	1
Kuldeep Gurjar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	23	1	11.50	1
Muhammad Nadeem0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	10	1	5.00	1
Sameera Pitabeddara0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	5	0	2.50	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/0
2	4	5/1
3	1	6/1
4	6	12/1
5	3	15/2
6	8	23/2
7	6	29/2
8	8	37/2
9	9	46/2
10	8	54/2
11	2	56/2
12	14	70/3
13	6	76/3
14	5	81/4
15	2	83/4
16	5	88/5
17	3	91/5
18	4	95/6
19	9	104/6
20	3	107/7

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