**Newlands, Cape Town**
Photo: The original uploader was PaddyBriggs at English Wikipedia.
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SA20 · 2025/26 · Men

Sunrisers Eastern CapeversusMI Cape Town

16 Jan 2026 · T20

Newlands, Cape Town · Venue photograph

Recorded result

MI Cape Town won by 3 wickets

Sunrisers Eastern Cape20.0 overs139/9 MI Cape Town19.2 overs140/7 Newlands, Cape Town ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sunrisers Eastern Cape started on 50%; Sunrisers Eastern Cape batted first.

Sunrisers Eastern Cape’s chance of winning (%) · MI Cape Town is the rest

Sunrisers Eastern Cape's chances ranged from 1% to 51% during the match (MI Cape Town: 49% to 99%).

Biggest swings

0.1: TA Boult to Q de Kock, Q de Kock out. MI Cape Town up from 49% to 64%.
2nd inns 4.1: M Jansen to RD Rickelton, RD Rickelton out. Sunrisers Eastern Cape up from 28% to 42%.
2nd inns 8.2: S Muthusamy to N Pooran, N Pooran out. Sunrisers Eastern Cape up from 21% to 33%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Sunrisers Eastern Cape139/9 MI Cape Town140/7

Innings 1