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Photo: Birdy10
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
ICC Men's T20 World Cup Europe Region Final · 2025 · Men
9 Jul 2025 · T20
Sportpark Westvliet, The Hague · Venue photographRecorded result
Scotland more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Italy started on 43%; Italy batted first.
Italy's chances ranged from 34% to 99% during the match (Scotland: 1% to 66%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Munseycaught · Joe Burns · Harry Manenti 4 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Joe Burns · b Harry Manenti | 72 | 61 | 4 | 2 | 118.03 |
| Ollie Hairscaught · Ben Manenti · Harry Manenti 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Ben Manenti · b Harry Manenti | 14 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 116.67 |
| Brandon McMullencaught and bowled · Harry Manenti 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Harry Manenti | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Richie Berringtonnot out 1 fours · 3 sixes | not out | 46* | 37 | 1 | 3 | 124.32 |
| Michael Leaskcaught · Ben Manenti · Harry Manenti 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ben Manenti · b Harry Manenti | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| caught · Ben Manenti · b Harry Manenti |
| 7 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 233.33 |
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 9 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Grant Stewart0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Thomas Draca0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 7.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Harry Manenti0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 31 | 5 | 7.75 | 5 | 0 |
| Ben Manenti0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 7.50 | 1 | 0 |
| CJPF Kalugamage0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 10.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaspreet Singh0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 9.00 | 2 | 0 |
1-29 (Ollie Hairs, 4.4) · 2-29 (Brandon McMullen, 4.5) · 3-134 (George Munsey, 17.2) · 4-142 (Michael Leask, 19.1) · 5-155 (Matty Cross, 20.0)
Recorded target: 168 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 16/0 |
| 4 | 10 | 26/0 |
| 5 | 4 | 30/2 |
| 6 | 7 | 37/2 |
| 7 | 4 | 41/2 |
| 8 | 11 | 52/2 |
| 9 | 6 | 58/2 |
| 10 | 13 | 71/2 |
| 11 | 10 | 81/2 |
| 12 | 11 | 92/2 |
| 13 | 9 | 101/2 |
| 14 | 6 | 107/2 |
| 15 | 10 | 117/2 |
| 16 | 8 | 125/2 |
| 17 | 8 | 133/2 |
| 18 | 5 | 138/3 |
| 19 | 4 | 142/3 |
| 20 | 13 | 155/5 |
Mark Watt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Grant Stewart: Blue Square Thing · CC0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
