WorcestershireversusNottinghamshire

17 Jul 2025 · T20

New Road, Worcester · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Worcestershire won by 45 runs

Worcestershire20.0 overs206/7 Nottinghamshire18.2 overs161/10 New Road, Worcester ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Worcestershire started on 47%; Worcestershire batted first.

Worcestershire’s chance of winning (%) · Nottinghamshire is the rest

Worcestershire's chances ranged from 44% to 100% during the match (Nottinghamshire: 0% to 56%).

Biggest swings

3.6: DR Sams to Isaac Mohammed, Isaac Mohammed out. Nottinghamshire up from 34% to 45%.
2nd inns 10.6: BMJ Allison to M Montgomery, M Montgomery out. Worcestershire up from 77% to 91%.
2nd inns 13.1: EA Brookes to DR Sams, DR Sams out. Worcestershire up from 85% to 95%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.