OneTipOneHand
Bringing the game to you…
Loading your next view.
THE WORLD OF CRICKET. CONNECTED. One game. A global community.
OneTipOneHand
Loading your next view.
Spot an error, a missing record or a photograph that needs attention?
Photo: Maghan mal
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
ICC Champions Trophy · 2024/25 · Men
19 Feb 2025 · ODI
National Stadium, Karachi · Venue photographRecorded result
Pakistan more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 36%; New Zealand batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Youngcaught · Faheem Ashraf · Naseem Shah12 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Faheem Ashraf · b Naseem Shah | 107 | 113 | 12 | 1 | 94.69 |
| Devon Conwaybowled · Abrar Ahmed 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Abrar Ahmed | 10 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 58.82 |
 Kane Williamsoncaught · Mohammad Rizwan · Naseem Shah0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Rizwan · b Naseem Shah | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Daryl Mitchellcaught · Shaheen Afridi · Haris Rauf 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shaheen Afridi · b Haris Rauf | 10 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 41.67 |
New Zealand's chances ranged from 23% to 100% during the match (Pakistan: 0% to 77%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| not out |
| 118* |
| 104 |
| 10 |
| 3 |
| 113.46 |
| Glenn Phillipscaught · Fakhar Zaman · Haris Rauf 3 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Fakhar Zaman · b Haris Rauf | 61 | 39 | 3 | 4 | 156.41 |
|---|
| Michael Bracewellnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 9 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Shaheen Afridi0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 68 | 0 | 6.80 | 2 | 0 |
 Naseem Shah0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 63 | 2 | 6.30 | 0 | 0 |
 Abrar Ahmed0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 47 | 1 | 4.70 | 1 | 0 |
 Haris Rauf0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 83 | 2 | 8.30 | 6 | 0 |
| Khushdil Shah0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 40 | 0 | 5.71 | 0 | 0 |
| Salman Ali Agha0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-39 (Devon Conway, 7.3) · 2-40 (Kane Williamson, 8.1) · 3-73 (Daryl Mitchell, 16.2) · 4-191 (Will Young, 37.2) · 5-316 (Glenn Phillips, 49.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 8/0 |
| 3 | 9 | 17/0 |
| 4 | 7 | 24/0 |
| 5 | 6 | 30/0 |
| 6 | 3 | 33/0 |
| 7 | 6 | 39/0 |
| 8 | 1 | 40/1 |
| 9 | 5 | 45/2 |
| 10 | 3 | 48/2 |
| 11 | 2 | 50/2 |
| 12 | 5 | 55/2 |
| 13 | 9 | 64/2 |
| 14 | 4 | 68/2 |
| 15 | 3 | 71/2 |
| 16 | 2 | 73/2 |
| 17 | 4 | 77/3 |
| 18 | 3 | 80/3 |
| 19 | 6 | 86/3 |
| 20 | 7 | 93/3 |
| 21 | 1 | 94/3 |
| 22 | 4 | 98/3 |
| 23 | 7 | 105/3 |
| 24 | 5 | 110/3 |
| 25 | 3 | 113/3 |
| 26 | 6 | 119/3 |
| 27 | 5 | 124/3 |
| 28 | 5 | 129/3 |
| 29 | 10 | 139/3 |
| 30 | 9 | 148/3 |
| 31 | 3 | 151/3 |
| 32 | 8 | 159/3 |
| 33 | 5 | 164/3 |
| 34 | 7 | 171/3 |
| 35 | 4 | 175/3 |
| 36 | 8 | 183/3 |
| 37 | 4 | 187/3 |
| 38 | 6 | 193/4 |
| 39 | 5 | 198/4 |
| 40 | 9 | 207/4 |
| 41 | 5 | 212/4 |
| 42 | 3 | 215/4 |
| 43 | 9 | 224/4 |
| 44 | 16 | 240/4 |
| 45 | 16 | 256/4 |
| 46 | 9 | 265/4 |
| 47 | 18 | 283/4 |
| 48 | 11 | 294/4 |
| 49 | 12 | 306/4 |
| 50 | 14 | 320/5 |
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Rizwan: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Haris Rauf: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Naseem Shah: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Fakhar Zaman: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Saud Shakeel: Dave Morton · Public domain
Abrar Ahmed: Nazly Ahmed · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kane Williamson: Mark Lockett · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
.jpg){kind=link}
.jpg){kind=link}
.jpg){kind=link}
.jpg){kind=link}
