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ICC Champions Trophy · 2024/25 · Men
19 Feb 2025 · ODI
National Stadium, Karachi · Venue photographRecorded result
Pakistan more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 36%; New Zealand batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Saud Shakeelcaught · Matt Henry · William O’Rourke0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Matt Henry · b William O’Rourke | 6 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 31.58 |
 Mohammad Babar Azamcaught · Kane Williamson · Mitchell Santner6 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Kane Williamson · b Mitchell Santner | 64 | 90 | 6 | 1 | 71.11 |
 Mohammad Rizwancaught · Glenn Phillips · William O’Rourke0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Glenn Phillips · b William O’Rourke | 3 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 21.43 |
 |
New Zealand's chances ranged from 23% to 100% during the match (Pakistan: 0% to 77%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| bowled · b Michael Bracewell |
| 24 |
| 41 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 58.54 |
| Salman Ali Aghacaught · Michael Bracewell · Nathan Smith 6 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Michael Bracewell · b Nathan Smith | 42 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Tayyab Tahircaught · Kane Williamson · Mitchell Santner 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kane Williamson · b Mitchell Santner | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
| Khushdil Shahcaught · Michael Bracewell · William O’Rourke 10 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Michael Bracewell · b William O’Rourke | 69 | 49 | 10 | 1 | 140.82 |
|---|
 Shaheen Afridicaught · Tom Latham · Matt Henry0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Tom Latham · b Matt Henry | 14 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 107.69 |
|---|
 Naseem Shahbowled · Matt Henry0 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Matt Henry | 13 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 86.67 |
|---|
 Haris Raufcaught · Daryl Mitchell · Mitchell Santner0 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Daryl Mitchell · b Mitchell Santner | 19 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 190.00 |
|---|
 Abrar Ahmednot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Matt Henry1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.2 | 1 | 25 | 2 | 3.41 | 1 | 0 |
 William O’Rourke0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 47 | 3 | 5.22 | 3 | 0 |
| Michael Bracewell1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 38 | 1 | 3.80 | 0 | 0 |
| Glenn Phillips0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 63 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Mitchell Santner0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 66 | 3 | 6.60 | 0 | 0 |
| Nathan Smith0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-8 (Saud Shakeel, 3.4) · 2-22 (Mohammad Rizwan, 10.0) · 3-69 (Fakhar Zaman, 20.5) · 4-127 (Salman Ali Agha, 30.4) · 5-128 (Tayyab Tahir, 31.3) · 6-153 (Mohammad Babar Azam, 34.0) · 7-200 (Shaheen Afridi, 41.0) · 8-229 (Khushdil Shah, 43.4) · 9-260 (Haris Rauf, 47.0) · 10-260 (Naseem Shah, 47.2)
Recorded target: 321 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 3/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 5/0 |
| 4 | 3 | 8/1 |
| 5 | 4 | 12/1 |
| 6 | 2 | 14/1 |
| 7 | 0 | 14/1 |
| 8 | 5 | 19/1 |
| 9 | 2 | 21/1 |
| 10 | 1 | 22/2 |
| 11 | 2 | 24/2 |
| 12 | 9 | 33/2 |
| 13 | 2 | 35/2 |
| 14 | 6 | 41/2 |
| 15 | 8 | 49/2 |
| 16 | 6 | 55/2 |
| 17 | 0 | 55/2 |
| 18 | 5 | 60/2 |
| 19 | 5 | 65/2 |
| 20 | 1 | 66/2 |
| 21 | 3 | 69/3 |
| 22 | 1 | 70/3 |
| 23 | 2 | 72/3 |
| 24 | 8 | 80/3 |
| 25 | 3 | 83/3 |
| 26 | 1 | 84/3 |
| 27 | 10 | 94/3 |
| 28 | 10 | 104/3 |
| 29 | 15 | 119/3 |
| 30 | 5 | 124/3 |
| 31 | 4 | 128/4 |
| 32 | 2 | 130/5 |
| 33 | 16 | 146/5 |
| 34 | 7 | 153/6 |
| 35 | 3 | 156/6 |
| 36 | 10 | 166/6 |
| 37 | 9 | 175/6 |
| 38 | 8 | 183/6 |
| 39 | 4 | 187/6 |
| 40 | 9 | 196/6 |
| 41 | 4 | 200/7 |
| 42 | 13 | 213/7 |
| 43 | 12 | 225/7 |
| 44 | 4 | 229/8 |
| 45 | 7 | 236/8 |
| 46 | 9 | 245/8 |
| 47 | 15 | 260/9 |
| 48 | 0 | 260/10 |
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Rizwan: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Haris Rauf: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Naseem Shah: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Fakhar Zaman: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Saud Shakeel: Dave Morton · Public domain
Abrar Ahmed: Nazly Ahmed · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kane Williamson: Mark Lockett · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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