**Achimota Senior Secondary School A Field, Accra**
Photo: Amuzujoe
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

African Games · 2023/24 · Men

UgandaversusKenya

23 Mar 2024 · T20

Achimota Senior Secondary School A Field, Accra · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Uganda won by 106 runs

Uganda20.0 overs206/6 Kenya20.0 overs100/9 Achimota Senior Secondary School A Field, Accra ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Uganda more likely to win

87%Uganda13%Kenya

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Uganda rate stronger than Kenya (1,739 vs 1,496 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Uganda won 8 and Kenya won 2

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Uganda started on 87%; Uganda batted first.

Uganda’s chance of winning (%) · Kenya is the rest

Uganda's chances ranged from 87% to 100% during the match (Kenya: 0% to 13%).

Biggest swings

4.4: SO Ngoche to S Sesazi, six by S Sesazi. Uganda up from 87% to 89%.
8.1: Vishil Patel to RG Mukasa, RG Mukasa out. Kenya up from 8% to 11%.
9.1: Aarnav Patel to S Sesazi, six by S Sesazi. Uganda up from 88% to 90%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Uganda206/6 Kenya100/9

Innings 1

Uganda

206/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Uganda batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
RG Mukasabowled · Vishil Patel 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Vishil Patel	25	27	2	0	92.59
Simon Ssesazicaught · Sukhdeep Singh · Nelson Odhiambo 4 fours · 5 sixes	caught · Sukhdeep Singh · b Nelson Odhiambo	66	44	4	5	150.00
Robinson Obuyacaught · Vishil Patel · Nelson Odhiambo 0 fours · 4 sixes	caught · Vishil Patel · b Nelson Odhiambo	28	15	0	4	186.67
Dinesh Nakraninot out 2 fours · 5 sixes	not out	51*	21	2	5	242.86
Kenneth Waiswarun out · Nelson Odhiambo · Nelson Odhiambo 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Nelson Odhiambo	1	3	0	0	33.33

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Lucas Oluoch0 maidens · 6 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	42	0	14.00	6	1
Emmanuel Bundi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	34	2	8.50	0	0
Shem Ngoche0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	19	0	9.50	0	0
Peter Langat0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	32	0	8.00	0	0
Vishil Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	16	1	8.00	0	0
Aarnav Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	13	0	13.00	0	0
Rakep Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	14	0	14.00	0	0
Nelson Odhiambo0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	32	2	10.67	5	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	6	11/0
3	5	16/0
4	7	23/0
5	11	34/0
6	5	39/0
7	8	47/0
8	14	61/0
9	2	63/1
10	13	76/1
11	14	90/1
12	14	104/1
13	13	117/1
14	8	125/1
15	3	128/3
16	5	133/3
17	16	149/4
18	10	159/5
19	32	191/5
20	15	206/6

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