**Achimota Senior Secondary School A Field, Accra**
Photo: Amuzujoe
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

African Games · 2023/24 · Men

UgandaversusKenya

23 Mar 2024 · T20

Achimota Senior Secondary School A Field, Accra · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Uganda won by 106 runs

Uganda20.0 overs206/6 Kenya20.0 overs100/9 Achimota Senior Secondary School A Field, Accra ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Uganda more likely to win

87%Uganda13%Kenya

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Uganda rate stronger than Kenya (1,739 vs 1,496 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Uganda won 8 and Kenya won 2

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Uganda started on 87%; Uganda batted first.

Uganda’s chance of winning (%) · Kenya is the rest

Uganda's chances ranged from 87% to 100% during the match (Kenya: 0% to 13%).

Biggest swings

4.4: SO Ngoche to S Sesazi, six by S Sesazi. Uganda up from 87% to 89%.
8.1: Vishil Patel to RG Mukasa, RG Mukasa out. Kenya up from 8% to 11%.
9.1: Aarnav Patel to S Sesazi, six by S Sesazi. Uganda up from 88% to 90%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Uganda206/6 Kenya100/9

Innings 2

Kenya

100/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Kenya batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Collins Obuyabowled · Cosmas Kyewuta 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Cosmas Kyewuta	0	5	0	0	0.00
N Mugabebowled · Henry Ssenyondo 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Henry Ssenyondo	14	21	1	0	66.67
Nelson Odhiambocaught · Fred Achelam · Cosmas Kyewuta 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Fred Achelam · b Cosmas Kyewuta	0	2	0	0	0.00
Rakep Patelbowled · Bilal Hassan 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Bilal Hassan	9	11	1	0	81.82
Sukhdeep Singhcaught · Robinson Obuya · Henry Ssenyondo3 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Cosmas Kyewuta0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	13	4	3.25	3
AR Ramjani1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	13	1	3.25	0
Juma Miyagi0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	22	1	5.50	5
Bilal Hassan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	6	1	6.00	0
Henry Ssenyondo0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	25	2	6.25	0
Dinesh Nakrani1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	16	0	5.33	2

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/1
2	0	2/1
3	4	6/2
4	8	14/2
5	6	20/3
6	7	27/3
7	11	38/3
8	10	48/4
9	1	49/4
10	3	52/5
11	6	58/5
12	6	64/5
13	10	74/5
14	6	80/5
15	6	86/6
16	3	89/7
17	5	94/8
18	3	97/8
19	2	99/9
20	1	100/9

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.