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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2024 · Men
22 Sept 2024 · ODI
Recorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Nepal started on 48%; Nepal batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arjun Saudcaught · Saad Bin Zafar · Dillon Heyliger 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Saad Bin Zafar · b Dillon Heyliger | 10 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 37.04 |
| Aasif Sheikhbowled · Kaleem Sana 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kaleem Sana | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
| B Sharkicaught · Shreyas Movva · Kaleem Sana 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shreyas Movva · b Kaleem Sana | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
 Rohit Kumarrun out · Navneet Dhaliwal, Akhil Kumar, Shreyas Movva · Akhil Kumar1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Navneet Dhaliwal, Akhil Kumar, Shreyas Movva | 4 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 36.36 |
 |
Nepal's chances ranged from 0% to 52% during the match (Canada: 48% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Nicholas Kirton · b Kaleem Sana |
| 10 |
| 33 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 30.30 |
| Anil Sahcaught · Harsh Thaker · Parveen Kumar (2) 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harsh Thaker · b Parveen Kumar (2) | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
 Gulsan Jhacaught · Navneet Dhaliwal · Harsh Thaker2 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Navneet Dhaliwal · b Harsh Thaker | 34 | 56 | 2 | 2 | 60.71 |
|---|
 Sompal Kamilbw · Saad Bin Zafar2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Saad Bin Zafar | 21 | 48 | 2 | 0 | 43.75 |
|---|
 Sandeep Lamichhanecaught · Parveen Kumar (2) · Harsh Thaker5 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Parveen Kumar (2) · b Harsh Thaker | 49 | 48 | 5 | 1 | 102.08 |
|---|
 Karan KCcaught · Navneet Dhaliwal · Dillon Heyliger2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Navneet Dhaliwal · b Dillon Heyliger | 24 | 28 | 2 | 1 | 85.71 |
|---|
| Lalit Rajbanshinot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 21 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaleem Sana2 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 29 | 3 | 2.90 | 2 | 0 |
| Dillon Heyliger2 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.1 | 2 | 26 | 2 | 2.84 | 7 | 0 |
| Akhil Kumar0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 40 | 0 | 5.71 | 5 | 0 |
| Parveen Kumar (2)1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 31 | 1 | 3.88 | 0 | 0 |
| Harsh Thaker0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 3.25 | 6 | 0 |
 Saad Bin Zafar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 41 | 1 | 5.13 | 1 | 0 |
1-8 (Aasif Sheikh, 4.2) · 2-20 (B Sharki, 7.0) · 3-20 (Arjun Saud, 7.5) · 4-30 (Rohit Kumar, 10.2) · 5-36 (Anil Sah, 12.0) · 6-70 (Aarif Sheikh, 22.3) · 7-87 (Gulsan Jha, 27.1) · 8-142 (Sompal Kami, 38.4) · 9-181 (Sandeep Lamichhane, 45.4) · 10-181 (Karan KC, 46.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 7/0 |
| 4 | 1 | 8/0 |
| 5 | 7 | 15/1 |
| 6 | 1 | 16/1 |
| 7 | 4 | 20/2 |
| 8 | 0 | 20/3 |
| 9 | 1 | 21/3 |
| 10 | 9 | 30/3 |
| 11 | 5 | 35/4 |
| 12 | 1 | 36/5 |
| 13 | 2 | 38/5 |
| 14 | 0 | 38/5 |
| 15 | 3 | 41/5 |
| 16 | 2 | 43/5 |
| 17 | 6 | 49/5 |
| 18 | 8 | 57/5 |
| 19 | 2 | 59/5 |
| 20 | 2 | 61/5 |
| 21 | 1 | 62/5 |
| 22 | 7 | 69/5 |
| 23 | 1 | 70/6 |
| 24 | 5 | 75/6 |
| 25 | 8 | 83/6 |
| 26 | 1 | 84/6 |
| 27 | 3 | 87/6 |
| 28 | 1 | 88/7 |
| 29 | 4 | 92/7 |
| 30 | 11 | 103/7 |
| 31 | 7 | 110/7 |
| 32 | 5 | 115/7 |
| 33 | 5 | 120/7 |
| 34 | 8 | 128/7 |
| 35 | 0 | 128/7 |
| 36 | 2 | 130/7 |
| 37 | 5 | 135/7 |
| 38 | 7 | 142/7 |
| 39 | 1 | 143/8 |
| 40 | 7 | 150/8 |
| 41 | 10 | 160/8 |
| 42 | 2 | 162/8 |
| 43 | 6 | 168/8 |
| 44 | 6 | 174/8 |
| 45 | 5 | 179/8 |
| 46 | 2 | 181/9 |
| 47 | 0 | 181/10 |
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sompal Kami: सरोज कुमार ढकाल · CC BY-SA 3.0
Sandeep Lamichhane: Deshsanchar · CC BY 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Saad Bin Zafar: Apnagm · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karan KC: Helloworld3377 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aarif Sheikh: Nepalese Diaspora · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
