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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2024 · Men
22 Sept 2024 · ODI
Recorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Nepal started on 48%; Nepal batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Johnsoncaught · Gulsan Jha · Karan KC 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Gulsan Jha · b Karan KC | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Navneet Dhaliwalcaught · Arjun Saud · Lalit Rajbanshi 8 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Arjun Saud · b Lalit Rajbanshi | 87 | 113 | 8 | 4 | 76.99 |
| Pargat Singhcaught · Anil Sah · Gulsan Jha 7 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Anil Sah · b Gulsan Jha | 64 | 83 | 7 | 2 | 77.11 |
| Harsh Thakerbowled · Sandeep Lamichhane 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sandeep Lamichhane | 13 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 54.17 |
| Akhil Kumarcaught · Sompal Kami · Sandeep Lamichhane 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sompal Kami · b Sandeep Lamichhane | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
Nepal's chances ranged from 0% to 52% during the match (Canada: 48% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| not out |
| 11* |
| 8 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 137.50 |
| Shreyas Movvanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 3 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Karan KC1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 26 | 1 | 3.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Lalit Rajbanshi2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 2 | 37 | 1 | 4.11 | 0 | 0 |
 Sompal Kami0 maidens · 1 wides · 2 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 4.33 | 1 | 2 |
 Gulsan Jha0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 38 | 1 | 5.43 | 0 | 0 |
 Sandeep Lamichhane2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 42 | 2 | 4.20 | 1 | 0 |
 Aarif Sheikh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 7.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-7 (Aaron Johnson, 4.2) · 2-129 (Pargat Singh, 30.3) · 3-169 (Navneet Dhaliwal, 37.4) · 4-171 (Harsh Thaker, 38.3) · 5-174 (Akhil Kumar, 40.3)
Recorded target: 182 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 6/0 |
| 4 | 0 | 6/0 |
| 5 | 3 | 9/1 |
| 6 | 8 | 17/1 |
| 7 | 7 | 24/1 |
| 8 | 2 | 26/1 |
| 9 | 1 | 27/1 |
| 10 | 4 | 31/1 |
| 11 | 5 | 36/1 |
| 12 | 1 | 37/1 |
| 13 | 7 | 44/1 |
| 14 | 0 | 44/1 |
| 15 | 4 | 48/1 |
| 16 | 15 | 63/1 |
| 17 | 5 | 68/1 |
| 18 | 0 | 68/1 |
| 19 | 5 | 73/1 |
| 20 | 2 | 75/1 |
| 21 | 10 | 85/1 |
| 22 | 12 | 97/1 |
| 23 | 7 | 104/1 |
| 24 | 0 | 104/1 |
| 25 | 5 | 109/1 |
| 26 | 1 | 110/1 |
| 27 | 3 | 113/1 |
| 28 | 6 | 119/1 |
| 29 | 2 | 121/1 |
| 30 | 2 | 123/1 |
| 31 | 13 | 136/2 |
| 32 | 2 | 138/2 |
| 33 | 2 | 140/2 |
| 34 | 5 | 145/2 |
| 35 | 2 | 147/2 |
| 36 | 6 | 153/2 |
| 37 | 6 | 159/2 |
| 38 | 10 | 169/3 |
| 39 | 2 | 171/4 |
| 40 | 2 | 173/4 |
| 41 | 2 | 175/5 |
| 42 | 11 | 186/5 |
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sompal Kami: सरोज कुमार ढकाल · CC BY-SA 3.0
Sandeep Lamichhane: Deshsanchar · CC BY 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Saad Bin Zafar: Apnagm · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karan KC: Helloworld3377 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aarif Sheikh: Nepalese Diaspora · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
