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Malaysia Open T20 Championship · 2023/24 · Men
5 Mar 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Tanzania more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Vanuatu started on 41%; Vanuatu batted first.
Vanuatu's chances ranged from 24% to 90% during the match (Tanzania: 10% to 76%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| II Selemanicaught · W Wotu · Joshua Rasu 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · W Wotu · b Joshua Rasu | 9 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 100.00 |
| J Masquatercaught · Patrick Matautaava · Tim Cutler 3 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Patrick Matautaava · b Tim Cutler | 29 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 145.00 |
| AJ Jabiristumped · JD Allan · Williamsing Nalisa 1 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · JD Allan · b Williamsing Nalisa | 14 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 70.00 |
| ZR Jabonekecaught · Apolinaire Stephen · Williamsing Nalisa 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Apolinaire Stephen · b Williamsing Nalisa | 7 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 70.00 |
| MO Kitundacaught · Andrew Mansale · Joshua Rasu 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Andrew Mansale · b Joshua Rasu | 14 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 93.33 |
| M Yunusu Issalbw · Williamsing Nalisa 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Williamsing Nalisa | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Salum Jumbecaught · Joshua Rasu · Tim Cutler 1 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Joshua Rasu · b Tim Cutler | 25 | 19 | 1 | 2 | 131.58 |
|---|
| Ally Kimotecaught · Andrew Mansale · Joshua Rasu 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Andrew Mansale · b Joshua Rasu | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 85.71 |
|---|
| S Thakorcaught · JD Allan · Patrick Matautaava 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · JD Allan · b Patrick Matautaava | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| JJ Nyambolbw · Tim Cutler 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Tim Cutler | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| YM Nkanyanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 5 · noballs: 3 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nalin Nipiko0 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 10.50 | 0 | 2 |
| Joshua Rasu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 3 | 5.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Tim Cutler0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 44 | 3 | 11.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Apolinaire Stephen0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 3.00 | 0 | 1 |
| Patrick Matautaava0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 5.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Williamsing Nalisa0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 15 | 3 | 3.75 | 2 | 0 |
1-28 (II Selemani, 3.2) · 2-42 (J Masquater, 5.3) · 3-59 (AJ Jabiri, 8.4) · 4-77 (MO Kitunda, 11.4) · 5-79 (ZR Jaboneke, 12.2) · 6-81 (M Yunusu Issa, 13.0) · 7-96 (Ally Kimote, 15.4) · 8-103 (S Thakor, 16.5) · 9-118 (Salum Jumbe, 17.4) · 10-119 (JJ Nyambo, 18.0)
Recorded target: 129 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 8 | 16/0 |
| 3 | 12 | 28/0 |
| 4 | 5 | 33/1 |
| 5 | 3 | 36/1 |
| 6 | 8 | 44/2 |
| 7 | 3 | 47/2 |
| 8 | 6 | 53/2 |
| 9 | 7 | 60/3 |
| 10 | 13 | 73/3 |
| 11 | 2 | 75/3 |
| 12 | 3 | 78/4 |
| 13 | 3 | 81/6 |
| 14 | 8 | 89/6 |
| 15 | 3 | 92/6 |
| 16 | 6 | 98/7 |
| 17 | 5 | 103/8 |
| 18 | 16 | 119/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.