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Photo: RIDHVAN SHARMA
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Papua New Guinea Women tour of Zimbabwe · 2023/24 · Women
26 Mar 2024 · ODI
Harare Sports Club · Venue photographRecorded result
Papua New Guinea more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Papua New Guinea started on 54%; Papua New Guinea batted first.
Papua New Guinea's chances ranged from 1% to 63% during the match (Zimbabwe: 37% to 99%).
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naoani Varelbw · Francisca Chipare 2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Francisca Chipare | 16 | 37 | 2 | 0 | 43.24 |
| Brenda Taubowled · K Chigora 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b K Chigora | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Tanya Rumalbw · Francisca Chipare 2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Francisca Chipare | 15 | 37 | 2 | 0 | 40.54 |
| Sibona Jimmycaught · Chiedza Dhururu · Loryn Phiri 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Chiedza Dhururu · b Loryn Phiri | 17 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 73.91 |
| Pauke Siakabowled · Josephine Nkomo 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Josephine Nkomo | 28 | 51 | 2 | 0 | 54.90 |
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| bowled · b Josephine Nkomo |
| 10 |
| 26 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 38.46 |
| HJ Thomasnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 11* | 20 | 1 | 0 | 55.00 |
|---|
| Vicky Araabowled · Josephine Nkomo 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Josephine Nkomo | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Isabel Toualbw · K Chigora 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b K Chigora | 3 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 27.27 |
|---|
| Geua Tomrun out · Loryn Phiri · Francisca Chipare 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Loryn Phiri | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| V Burukabowled · Francisca Chipare 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Francisca Chipare | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 13 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josephine Nkomo0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 18 | 3 | 2.25 | 4 | 0 |
| K Chigora0 maidens · 4 wides · 2 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 20 | 2 | 4.00 | 4 | 2 |
| L Mabhero0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 4.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Francisca Chipare1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.4 | 1 | 15 | 3 | 2.25 | 2 | 0 |
| Kelis Ndhlovu0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 3.60 | 1 | 0 |
| Loryn Phiri0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 4.50 | 1 | 0 |
1-15 (Brenda Tau, 3.5) · 2-27 (Naoani Vare, 9.4) · 3-56 (Tanya Ruma, 15.5) · 4-77 (Sibona Jimmy, 20.4) · 5-98 (K Frank, 28.4) · 6-106 (Pauke Siaka, 30.3) · 7-107 (Vicky Araa, 30.5) · 8-117 (Isabel Toua, 34.1) · 9-125 (Geua Tom, 35.3) · 10-125 (V Buruka, 35.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 9 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 14/0 |
| 4 | 1 | 15/1 |
| 5 | 4 | 19/1 |
| 6 | 1 | 20/1 |
| 7 | 2 | 22/1 |
| 8 | 4 | 26/1 |
| 9 | 1 | 27/1 |
| 10 | 4 | 31/2 |
| 11 | 8 | 39/2 |
| 12 | 1 | 40/2 |
| 13 | 6 | 46/2 |
| 14 | 2 | 48/2 |
| 15 | 6 | 54/2 |
| 16 | 2 | 56/3 |
| 17 | 2 | 58/3 |
| 18 | 5 | 63/3 |
| 19 | 8 | 71/3 |
| 20 | 5 | 76/3 |
| 21 | 1 | 77/4 |
| 22 | 3 | 80/4 |
| 23 | 1 | 81/4 |
| 24 | 3 | 84/4 |
| 25 | 7 | 91/4 |
| 26 | 2 | 93/4 |
| 27 | 1 | 94/4 |
| 28 | 3 | 97/4 |
| 29 | 2 | 99/5 |
| 30 | 7 | 106/5 |
| 31 | 1 | 107/7 |
| 32 | 2 | 109/7 |
| 33 | 5 | 114/7 |
| 34 | 3 | 117/7 |
| 35 | 6 | 123/8 |
| 36 | 2 | 125/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.