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ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2025/26 · Men
18 Feb 2026 · T20
Sinhalese Sports Club Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Pakistan more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Pakistan started on 82%; Pakistan batted first.
Pakistan's chances ranged from 81% to 100% during the match (Namibia: 0% to 19%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louren Steenkampcaught · Usman Khan · Mohammad Nawaz 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Usman Khan · b Mohammad Nawaz | 23 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 104.55 |
| Jan Frylinckbowled · Salman Mirza 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Salman Mirza | 9 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 81.82 |
| Jan Nicol Loftie-Eatonrun out · Saim Ayub, Salman Ali Agha · Saim Ayub 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Saim Ayub, Salman Ali Agha | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Gerhard Erasmuscaught · Usman Khan · Shadab Khan 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Usman Khan · b Shadab Khan | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 116.67 |
| A Busing-Volschenkstumped · Usman Khan · Shadab Khan 1 fours · 1 sixes | stumped · Usman Khan · b Shadab Khan | 20 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 100.00 |
| JJ Smitcaught · Shadab Khan · Usman Tariq 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shadab Khan · b Usman Tariq | 9 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 69.23 |
|---|
| Zane Greencaught · Saim Ayub · Shadab Khan 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Saim Ayub · b Shadab Khan | 7 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 77.78 |
|---|
| Ruben Trumpelmannbowled · Usman Tariq 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Usman Tariq | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| WP Myburghcaught · Usman Khan · Usman Tariq 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Usman Khan · b Usman Tariq | 8 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 57.14 |
|---|
| Bernard Scholtzbowled · Usman Tariq 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Usman Tariq | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Jack Brassellnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fahim Ashraf0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Salman Mirza0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 5.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Saim Ayub0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Mohammad Nawaz0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 5.50 | 2 | 0 |
 Shadab Khan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 19 | 3 | 4.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Usman Tariq1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.3 | 1 | 16 | 4 | 4.57 | 0 | 0 |
1-32 (Jan Frylinck, 4.1) · 2-39 (Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton, 5.2) · 3-43 (Louren Steenkamp, 6.5) · 4-49 (Gerhard Erasmus, 7.3) · 5-79 (A Busing-Volschenk, 12.3) · 6-81 (JJ Smit, 13.1) · 7-81 (Ruben Trumpelmann, 13.3) · 8-95 (Zane Green, 16.2) · 9-96 (Bernard Scholtz, 17.1) · 10-97 (WP Myburgh, 17.3)
Recorded target: 200 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 9/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 15/0 |
| 3 | 8 | 23/0 |
| 4 | 9 | 32/0 |
| 5 | 6 | 38/1 |
| 6 | 2 | 40/2 |
| 7 | 3 | 43/3 |
| 8 | 8 | 51/4 |
| 9 | 7 | 58/4 |
| 10 | 4 | 62/4 |
| 11 | 10 | 72/4 |
| 12 | 4 | 76/4 |
| 13 | 5 | 81/5 |
| 14 | 0 | 81/7 |
| 15 | 2 | 83/7 |
| 16 | 11 | 94/7 |
| 17 | 2 | 96/8 |
| 18 | 1 | 97/10 |
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Usman Khan: Pakistan Cricket · CC BY 3.0
Shadab Khan: Pakistan Cricket · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
