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Bangladesh tour of West Indies · 2024/25 · Men
15 Dec 2024 · T20
Arnos Vale Ground, Kingstown · Venue photographRecorded result
West Indies more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bangladesh started on 27%; Bangladesh batted first.
Bangladesh's chances ranged from 15% to 100% during the match (West Indies: 1% to 85%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Kingcaught · Tanzid Hasan · Taskin Ahmed 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tanzid Hasan · b Taskin Ahmed | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
| Johnson Charlescaught · Hasan Mahmud · Mahedi Hasan 2 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Hasan Mahmud · b Mahedi Hasan | 20 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 166.67 |
| Nicolas Pooranstumped · Litton Das · Mahedi Hasan 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Litton Das · b Mahedi Hasan | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
 Roston Chasecaught · Litton Das · Mahedi Hasan0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Litton Das · b Mahedi Hasan | 7 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 53.85 |
| Andre Fletchercaught · Litton Das · Mahedi Hasan0 fours · 0 sixes |
| caught · Litton Das · b Mahedi Hasan |
| 0 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| Rovman Powellcaught · Litton Das · Hasan Mahmud 5 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Litton Das · b Hasan Mahmud | 60 | 35 | 5 | 4 | 171.43 |
|---|
| Gudakesh Motiecaught · Litton Das · Tanzim Hasan Sakib 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Litton Das · b Tanzim Hasan Sakib | 6 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
| Akeal Hoseincaught · Shamim Hossain · Rishad Hossain 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shamim Hossain · b Rishad Hossain | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
| Romario Shepherdcaught · Rishad Hossain · Taskin Ahmed 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Rishad Hossain · b Taskin Ahmed | 22 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 129.41 |
|---|
| Alzarri Josephbowled · Hasan Mahmud 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Hasan Mahmud | 9 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 81.82 |
|---|
| Obed McCoynot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 10 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hasan Mahmud0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.5 | 0 | 18 | 2 | 4.70 | 0 | 0 |
 Taskin Ahmed0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 2 | 7.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Mahedi Hasan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 13 | 4 | 3.25 | 0 | 0 |
 Tanzim Hasan Sakib0 maidens · 9 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 47 | 1 | 11.75 | 9 | 0 |
 Rishad Hossain0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 32 | 1 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-1 (Brandon King, 1.1) · 2-2 (Nicolas Pooran, 2.2) · 3-33 (Johnson Charles, 4.5) · 4-37 (Andre Fletcher, 6.3) · 5-38 (Roston Chase, 6.5) · 6-58 (Gudakesh Motie, 10.3) · 7-61 (Akeal Hosein, 11.4) · 8-128 (Romario Shepherd, 17.1) · 9-139 (Rovman Powell, 19.3) · 10-140 (Alzarri Joseph, 19.5)
Recorded target: 148 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 2/1 |
| 3 | 1 | 3/2 |
| 4 | 25 | 28/2 |
| 5 | 5 | 33/3 |
| 6 | 3 | 36/3 |
| 7 | 3 | 39/5 |
| 8 | 8 | 47/5 |
| 9 | 4 | 51/5 |
| 10 | 6 | 57/5 |
| 11 | 2 | 59/6 |
| 12 | 3 | 62/7 |
| 13 | 8 | 70/7 |
| 14 | 15 | 85/7 |
| 15 | 23 | 108/7 |
| 16 | 12 | 120/7 |
| 17 | 8 | 128/7 |
| 18 | 2 | 130/8 |
| 19 | 8 | 138/8 |
| 20 | 2 | 140/10 |
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rishad Hossain: Press Information Department · Public domain
Tanzim Hasan Sakib: Cricket Today · CC BY 3.0
Jaker Ali: Press Information Department · Public domain
Hasan Mahmud: Press Information Department · Public domain
Taskin Ahmed: Mahbub Ali Zaki · CC BY-SA 4.0
Soumya Sarkar: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shamim Hossain: DelwarHossain · CC BY-SA 4.0
Litton Das: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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