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Twenty20 Quadrangular (in Kenya) · 2024 · Men
28 Jun 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Malawi more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Malawi started on 64%; Malawi batted first.
Malawi's chances ranged from 63% to 100% during the match (Rwanda: 0% to 37%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D Ndikubwimanabowled · Daniel Jackiel 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Daniel Jackiel | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
| O Manishimwecaught · M Choamba · SZ Vayani 9 fours · 0 sixes | caught · M Choamba · b SZ Vayani | 59 | 49 | 9 | 0 | 120.41 |
| Hamza Khancaught · Sami Sohail · B Pondani 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sami Sohail · b B Pondani | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
| O Tuyisengecaught · P Zuze · M Choamba 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · P Zuze · b M Choamba | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
| Yves Cyusabowled · SZ Vayani 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b SZ Vayani | 5 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 45.45 |
| K Irakoze |
| caught · Sami Sohail · b M Choamba |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| C Rububagumyarun out · D Kansonkho, Daniel Jackiel · D Kansonkho 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · D Kansonkho, Daniel Jackiel | 15 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 88.24 |
|---|
| M Akayezucaught · Daniel Jackiel · A Limdawala 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Daniel Jackiel · b A Limdawala | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Muhammad Nadircaught · Sami Sohail · B Pondani 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sami Sohail · b B Pondani | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 30.00 |
|---|
| Z Bimenyimanacaught · D Kansonkho · A Limdawala 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · D Kansonkho · b A Limdawala | 9 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 128.57 |
|---|
| I Ntirenganyanot out 2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 11* | 7 | 2 | 0 | 157.14 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jackiel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 35 | 1 | 8.75 | 0 | 0 |
| B Pondani0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.2 | 0 | 19 | 2 | 5.70 | 5 | 0 |
| M Choamba0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 2 | 5.25 | 0 | 0 |
| SZ Vayani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 2 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| A Limdawala0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 15 | 2 | 5.00 | 2 | 0 |
| D Kansonkho0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-23 (D Ndikubwimana, 3.0) · 2-40 (Hamza Khan, 5.3) · 3-44 (O Tuyisenge, 6.2) · 4-65 (Yves Cyusa, 10.0) · 5-66 (K Irakoze, 10.3) · 6-92 (O Manishimwe, 14.5) · 7-94 (M Akayezu, 15.1) · 8-95 (C Rububagumya, 16.2) · 9-105 (Z Bimenyimana, 17.5) · 10-118 (Muhammad Nadir, 19.2)
Recorded target: 177 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 9/0 |
| 2 | 9 | 18/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 23/1 |
| 4 | 5 | 28/1 |
| 5 | 10 | 38/1 |
| 6 | 4 | 42/2 |
| 7 | 7 | 49/3 |
| 8 | 6 | 55/3 |
| 9 | 6 | 61/3 |
| 10 | 4 | 65/4 |
| 11 | 3 | 68/5 |
| 12 | 8 | 76/5 |
| 13 | 5 | 81/5 |
| 14 | 5 | 86/5 |
| 15 | 7 | 93/6 |
| 16 | 1 | 94/7 |
| 17 | 3 | 97/8 |
| 18 | 9 | 106/9 |
| 19 | 11 | 117/9 |
| 20 | 1 | 118/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.