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Nordic T20 Cup · 2024 · Men
15 Jun 2024 · T20
Kerava National Cricket Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Norway more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Finland started on 36%; Finland batted first.
Finland's chances ranged from 0% to 62% during the match (Norway: 38% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ghulam Abbas Buttrun out · Raza Iqbal · Qamar Mushtaque 4 fours · 1 sixes | run out · Raza Iqbal | 28 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 186.67 |
| VS Padhaallbw · Sher Sahak 4 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Sher Sahak | 18 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 200.00 |
| Ziaur Rehmancaught · Ali Saleem · Chaudhary Akram 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ali Saleem · b Chaudhary Akram | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
| Jordan O'Brienlbw · Qamar Mushtaque 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Qamar Mushtaque | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 160.00 |
| NM Salonencaught and bowled · AJ Parmar 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b AJ Parmar | 8 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 47.06 |
| caught · Wahidullah Sahak · b Raza Iqbal |
| 17 |
| 14 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 121.43 |
| Akhil Arjunancaught · Ali Saleem · Chaudhary Akram 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ali Saleem · b Chaudhary Akram | 13 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 68.42 |
|---|
| Faheem Nellanchericaught · Chaudhary Akram · AJ Parmar 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Chaudhary Akram · b AJ Parmar | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Atif Rasheedbowled · AJ Parmar 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b AJ Parmar | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| MB Tambecaught · Saif-Ul Islam · Qamar Mushtaque 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Saif-Ul Islam · b Qamar Mushtaque | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 8.33 |
|---|
| Raaz Mohammadnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 8 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sher Sahak0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 9.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Wahidullah Sahak0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 16.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Chaudhary Akram0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 4.67 | 1 | 0 |
| Qamar Mushtaque0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.5 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 3.39 | 4 | 0 |
| AJ Parmar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 3 | 6.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Raza Iqbal0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-31 (VS Padhaal, 2.5) · 2-51 (Ziaur Rehman, 4.3) · 3-57 (Ghulam Abbas Butt, 5.2) · 4-59 (Jordan O'Brien, 5.4) · 5-84 (NM Salonen, 10.2) · 6-88 (Amjad Sher, 11.2) · 7-95 (Faheem Nellancheri, 12.5) · 8-107 (Atif Rasheed, 15.0) · 9-113 (Akhil Arjunan, 17.3) · 10-118 (MB Tambe, 18.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | 11/0 |
| 2 | 13 | 24/0 |
| 3 | 7 | 31/1 |
| 4 | 19 | 50/1 |
| 5 | 7 | 57/2 |
| 6 | 4 | 61/4 |
| 7 | 4 | 65/4 |
| 8 | 2 | 67/4 |
| 9 | 10 | 77/4 |
| 10 | 5 | 82/4 |
| 11 | 6 | 88/5 |
| 12 | 3 | 91/6 |
| 13 | 5 | 96/7 |
| 14 | 7 | 103/7 |
| 15 | 4 | 107/8 |
| 16 | 1 | 108/8 |
| 17 | 3 | 111/8 |
| 18 | 3 | 114/9 |
| 19 | 4 | 118/10 |
Khizer Ahmed: Khizer22 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
