OneTipOneHand
Bringing the game to you…
Loading your next view.
THE WORLD OF CRICKET. CONNECTED. One game. A global community.
OneTipOneHand
Loading your next view.
Spot an error, a missing record or a photograph that needs attention?
Photo: AssociateAffiliate
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
South Africa tour of England · 2025 · Men
7 Sept 2025 · ODI
The Rose Bowl, Southampton · Venue photographRecorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 42%; England batted first.
England's chances ranged from 41% to 100% during the match (South Africa: 0% to 59%).
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jamie Smithcaught · Corbin Bosch · Keshav Maharaj9 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Corbin Bosch · b Keshav Maharaj | 62 | 48 | 9 | 1 | 129.17 |
 Ben Duckettcaught · Aiden Markram · Corbin Bosch6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aiden Markram · b Corbin Bosch | 31 | 33 | 6 | 0 | 93.94 |
 Joe Rootcaught · KT Maphaka · Corbin Bosch6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · KT Maphaka · b Corbin Bosch | 100 | 96 | 6 | 0 | 104.17 |
| Jacob Bethellstumped · Ryan Rickelton · Keshav Maharaj 13 fours · 3 sixes | stumped · Ryan Rickelton · b Keshav Maharaj |
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 110 |
| 82 |
| 13 |
| 3 |
| 134.15 |
 Harry Brookrun out · Ryan Rickelton, Codi Yusuf · Keshav Maharaj0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Ryan Rickelton, Codi Yusuf | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 150.00 |
|---|
 Jos Buttlernot out8 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 62* | 32 | 8 | 1 | 193.75 |
|---|
 Will Jacksnot out2 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 19* | 8 | 2 | 1 | 237.50 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 7 · wides: 19 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nandre Burger0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 95 | 0 | 9.50 | 4 | 0 |
| Codi Yusuf0 maidens · 5 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 80 | 0 | 8.00 | 5 | 1 |
| Corbin Bosch0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 79 | 2 | 7.90 | 3 | 0 |
 Wiaan Mulder0 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 64 | 0 | 8.00 | 7 | 0 |
 Keshav Maharaj0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 61 | 2 | 7.63 | 0 | 0 |
| Dewald Brevis0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-59 (Ben Duckett, 8.3) · 2-117 (Jamie Smith, 16.2) · 3-299 (Jacob Bethell, 40.2) · 4-302 (Harry Brook, 40.4) · 5-371 (Joe Root, 46.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 7/0 |
| 3 | 13 | 20/0 |
| 4 | 9 | 29/0 |
| 5 | 6 | 35/0 |
| 6 | 5 | 40/0 |
| 7 | 9 | 49/0 |
| 8 | 9 | 58/0 |
| 9 | 4 | 62/1 |
| 10 | 5 | 67/1 |
| 11 | 3 | 70/1 |
| 12 | 8 | 78/1 |
| 13 | 14 | 92/1 |
| 14 | 10 | 102/1 |
| 15 | 8 | 110/1 |
| 16 | 6 | 116/1 |
| 17 | 3 | 119/2 |
| 18 | 9 | 128/2 |
| 19 | 9 | 137/2 |
| 20 | 2 | 139/2 |
| 21 | 8 | 147/2 |
| 22 | 7 | 154/2 |
| 23 | 9 | 163/2 |
| 24 | 9 | 172/2 |
| 25 | 7 | 179/2 |
| 26 | 5 | 184/2 |
| 27 | 7 | 191/2 |
| 28 | 3 | 194/2 |
| 29 | 2 | 196/2 |
| 30 | 4 | 200/2 |
| 31 | 9 | 209/2 |
| 32 | 9 | 218/2 |
| 33 | 3 | 221/2 |
| 34 | 11 | 232/2 |
| 35 | 14 | 246/2 |
| 36 | 8 | 254/2 |
| 37 | 5 | 259/2 |
| 38 | 9 | 268/2 |
| 39 | 16 | 284/2 |
| 40 | 15 | 299/2 |
| 41 | 3 | 302/4 |
| 42 | 20 | 322/4 |
| 43 | 6 | 328/4 |
| 44 | 11 | 339/4 |
| 45 | 15 | 354/4 |
| 46 | 10 | 364/4 |
| 47 | 8 | 372/5 |
| 48 | 15 | 387/5 |
| 49 | 10 | 397/5 |
| 50 | 17 | 414/5 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Ryan Rickelton: Dave Morton · Public domain
Temba Bavuma: Michael Sherman · CC BY 3.0
Wiaan Mulder: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Brydon Carse: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aiden Markram: Marcel Sigg · CC0
Jos Buttler: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Overton: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Keshav Maharaj: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Adil Rashid: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
_(Archer_cropped).jpg){kind=link}
.png){kind=link}
.jpg){kind=link}
