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South Africa tour of England · 2025 · Men
7 Sept 2025 · ODI
The Rose Bowl, Southampton · Venue photographRecorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 42%; England batted first.
England's chances ranged from 41% to 100% during the match (South Africa: 0% to 59%).
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Aiden Markramcaught · Jos Buttler · Jofra Archer0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jos Buttler · b Jofra Archer | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Ryan Rickeltoncaught · Jos Buttler · Jofra Archer0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jos Buttler · b Jofra Archer | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
 Wiaan Muldercaught · Harry Brook · Brydon Carse0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harry Brook · b Brydon Carse | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Matthew Breetzkecaught · Jos Buttler · Jofra Archer 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jos Buttler · b Jofra Archer |
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 4 |
| 10 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 40.00 |
| Tristan Stubbscaught · Will Jacks · Jofra Archer 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Will Jacks · b Jofra Archer | 10 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 45.45 |
|---|
| Dewald Breviscaught · Jamie Overton · Brydon Carse 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Jamie Overton · b Brydon Carse | 6 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Corbin Boschcaught · Brydon Carse · Adil Rashid 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brydon Carse · b Adil Rashid | 20 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 62.50 |
|---|
 Keshav Maharajcaught · Joe Root · Adil Rashid2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Joe Root · b Adil Rashid | 17 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Codi Yusufbowled · Adil Rashid 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Adil Rashid | 5 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 45.45 |
|---|
| Nandre Burgernot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 7 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jofra Archer3 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 3 | 18 | 4 | 2.00 | 4 | 0 |
 Brydon Carse1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 1 | 33 | 2 | 5.50 | 3 | 0 |
 Jamie Overton0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Adil Rashid0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.5 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 3.39 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (Aiden Markram, 0.2) · 2-2 (Wiaan Mulder, 1.4) · 3-6 (Ryan Rickelton, 2.4) · 4-7 (Matthew Breetzke, 4.4) · 5-18 (Tristan Stubbs, 8.5) · 6-24 (Dewald Brevis, 9.5) · 7-49 (Keshav Maharaj, 14.2) · 8-57 (Codi Yusuf, 17.0) · 9-72 (Corbin Bosch, 20.5)
Absent hurt: T Bavuma
Recorded target: 415 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/1 |
| 2 | 6 | 6/2 |
| 3 | 0 | 6/3 |
| 4 | 0 | 6/3 |
| 5 | 1 | 7/4 |
| 6 | 1 | 8/4 |
| 7 | 4 | 12/4 |
| 8 | 6 | 18/4 |
| 9 | 0 | 18/5 |
| 10 | 6 | 24/6 |
| 11 | 4 | 28/6 |
| 12 | 14 | 42/6 |
| 13 | 1 | 43/6 |
| 14 | 5 | 48/6 |
| 15 | 1 | 49/7 |
| 16 | 3 | 52/7 |
| 17 | 5 | 57/8 |
| 18 | 5 | 62/8 |
| 19 | 7 | 69/8 |
| 20 | 3 | 72/8 |
| 21 | 0 | 72/9 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Ryan Rickelton: Dave Morton · Public domain
Temba Bavuma: Michael Sherman · CC BY 3.0
Wiaan Mulder: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Brydon Carse: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aiden Markram: Marcel Sigg · CC0
Jos Buttler: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Overton: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Keshav Maharaj: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Adil Rashid: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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